Will we ever see cheap C&R rifles again?

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  • Doctortoxic

    The Dose Makes The Poison
    Apr 18, 2019
    212
    CalvinBallistan
    Yes. There are a whole lot of imports coming in now and when Trump is reelected there will be a whole lot more coming in. Just in the last couple months 3,000 91/30, 3,000 SKS, and 10,000 Carcano were brought in by PW and Century along with half a million rounds of both 54r and x39 surplus ammo. Limex still has 60,000 Carcano in stock and a lot more.

    IO is bringing in from Africa. Century from Ukraine. Look for Czech 52/57 soon with rear sights welded at 300m.

    Then there is everything that is already here. Those collections will be selling off over the next few years.

    Will we see $100 price tags no because $100 in 1988 is $220 today. Will we see $250 or less? Yes. We are already seeing it ok Carcanos.

    I also believe this last run up in price was the last we will see. It was driven by free money and fear. Now that the free money tap has been turned off, the panic selling will begin. People will need to choose food. This week alone on GunBroker'

    Matching M44 Polish $350
    Matching FN 1935 Peruvian in 7.65 Mauser $383,

    FN-49 Lux High Number matching except stock $1,100 (I bought that one)

    Consecutive Nunbered No4 Mk2 Irish Contract rifles one with matching No9 bayonet the other with non matching bayonet, that actually feel into the Irish Contract range, $1,225 for both.

    I was tempted by all of them.

    Don't believe stocks are exhausted, there are many that haven't even been tapped yet. Indonesia is one I am looking forward to.

    Great assessment sir! Who is selling these half million rounds of 54R surplus, I’d like some
     

    BlueHeeler

    Ultimate Member
    Apr 28, 2010
    7,086
    Washington, DC
    CZ 82s, Tokarevs,and Chinese SKSs are still a pretty good value. They should go up in value after they are not surplus.

    Who would have thought the $99 Nagant revolvers would skyrocket to +$400?
     

    capt14k

    Active Member
    Jul 27, 2015
    221
    Actually, if the Obama-era embargoes on certain Russian businesses and persons were to be rescinded, then yes, you actually would see Mosins and RC k98s drop back down, but not likely to the $100/gun. Sub $200? definitely. There are still hundreds of thousands of Mosins and RC K98s over there, but the businesses holding them are blocked from export to the US.
    Only Russians are, not Ukrainians. Seems they are getting around things too though by running through Austria. I don't know that for a fact other than a whole lot of vz52/57 and Mosins have their rear sights welded at 300m.

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    shershot99

    Active Member
    Mar 22, 2010
    334
    Carroll County
    Limex is the largest arms dealer in the world. They are located in Austria. I don't think they sell directly. They have been the supplier of all the Carcanos you are seeing.

    Century, PW, and Interordance are major importers they are buying from Limex and elsewhere. You can buy from them directly. PW and Century with a FFL01 or FFL03 and and IO from their site Royal Tiger.

    Smaller importers Edelweiss, MMBI, and Simpsons have been bringing in all kinds of Swiss, Swedes, and others.

    Then you have the resellers Classic, AIM, DK, Dan's, and more they are buying from PW and Century.

    There is surplus in many Middle East Countries, Ukraine Century/Sarco has a deal for 3 warehouses, Limex is buying from Italian government storage, even South America there are countries that have not Surplused their older rifles still.

    A lot of this info can be fact checked through bill of ladings for import shipments at import genius, and the UN Small Arms Report for South America for what they have left in storage.

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    Thank you!


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    dweissman

    Member
    Mar 23, 2020
    34
    I wonder if there's anything juicy sitting around Belarus? Depending on how current events continue over there
     

    lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,678
    Deals are still to be had here and there, but the $100 for a "bucket of mosin nagants and 10,000 rounds surplus" stories you hear are gone for good. Look for good deals, understand the current price of surplus firearms and buy what you want. Gunbroker during a pandemic before an election is probably not the place to be, but local gun shops, this forum, and some reputable online dealers occasionally have good deals.

    Unfortunately a lot of the pop culture famous firearms and US milsurp rifles are getting more and more expensive. Bought a pristine '43 Rem m1903a3 a few months back and well you know what they say- buy once cry once.

    This. Prices fluctuate depending on supply and demand.

    On the political end of things...

    I can't speak to future import bans if B/H win the election. At least in the past, Clinton was the exception on tougher gun laws being enacted under a Democrat. Most have been implemented under a Republican for the last 40 or so years. Doesn't mean this time won't be different. Filibuster eliminated, very well might change. Then again, as much as some dems are itching to get rid of it, I don't think a simple senate majority will enable them to get rid of it. I think it is likely you'll have 1 or more dem senators who'd worry enough about precedent if or when Republicans manage a bare majority in the senate again. Senate rules require a bare majority of senators to agree to them in each new term of the senate (every 2 years). Though, Republicans have ditched a hell of a lot of precedent to do what they want the last 3.5yrs. So all Dems might just decide they don't care anymore. No F-ing idea.

    That said, an import ban is almost certainly something the president could do through an executive order without a law change.

    Anyway, assuming that doesn't happen. Supply and demand rules the roost. As some others have mentioned, cases of surplus for pennies a round won't ever happen again. Barrels of rifles for $100 each also won't. It costs importers too much. Most countries aren't as desperate for money, so they aren't selling their surplus for super cheap. Importation costs themselves are also a lot higher.

    That said, if there just isn't a ton of demand and some importer brings in 40k Norinco SKS or something, yeah I'd expect SKS prices to depress a bit for them to all move. So you might see the Norinco SKS market get depressed 10-20% on prices for a few months or even a year or two. If no one has brought any in recently and you are down to basically just secondary sales of Norincos, I'd expect prices to slowly float up.

    But with a lot of guns though, one limit is what are commercial guns going for.

    For example, SKS. Yes, some people want them for collector value. Think they are cool. Etc.

    But if you CAN buy an AK-47 parts kit rifle for $500, or an AR-47/AR-15 in 7.62x39 for similar...why would someone buy a stinking SKS for $800? They aren't particularly rare or exceptional in some historical way. I say this LOVING my Norinco SKS.

    At least some things like a Garand have history behind them. There is a certain value to what they symbolize. Not just their function. You could say the same about a 1903, Enfield, etc.

    Now maybe suddenly everyone looks at an SKS and have some kind of fond imaginings about the Vietnam war and SKS become super desirable. Well, then the value is judged differently and maybe they could be more expensive than a new commercial 7.62x39 semi-auto.

    The market isn't always rational...

    TBH that's the way I feel about Garands. They aren't rare and you can get a nice one from CMP without jumping through a ton of hoops for $700-800. Yet you can find similar condition Garands going for well over $1k at gun shows. Classifieds. Etc. Sure, some are uncommon examples and/or in wonderful condition. That sure rates more value, but I've seen guys selling CMP Garands they obviously just got from CMP for $1200. That to me is a symptom of a non-rational market.

    In general inflationary pressures means things will be more expensive over time. Excess supply can still drive down the price. Things going out of fashion can reduce demand. Honestly, so could generational changes. If the Gen X and Millennials and Zs (y? I don't keep up with this stuff) just aren't in to WWI stuff and the boomers starting aging out, that means more secondary sales and not nearly the same kind of demand to buy them. Prices will go down.

    Or B/H and a dem congress could make it incredibly hard to buy guns, making it super expensive to buy a gun at any price.

    So many unknowns.
     

    capt14k

    Active Member
    Jul 27, 2015
    221
    I disagree with cheap prices won't happen again. We are already seeing it with Carcanos. Everyone has to keep in mind $100 in 1988 is $220 today. So no we won't see $100 but we will see $250.

    Finns were paid $5.75 a rifle from Century. Burns I believe paid $11 each. IO didn't pay anywhere near what they are asking. They were the only bidder just like Century was the only bidder on the Samco stuff. Should give you a good idea what they paid.

    As for who changed the rules in the Senate first that would be Dems. Doesn't really matter since Trump is winning in a landslide and GOP will control Senate and make gains in the House.

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    capt14k

    Active Member
    Jul 27, 2015
    221
    Will we ever see cheap C&R rifles again?



    Yes, once my old lady dumps a pile of them on the market when I croak.:D
    Sad but true for many. My wife would do the same. Thankfully I don't think my kids will. I just read that is exactly what happened with John Wall's collection. Some Eisel got. The rest went to 3 large dealers and some even in the dumpster. You can bet Eisel didn't pay anywhere near $8225 for the 1912 Mexican he just sold. I would be surprised if he paid 10% of that.

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    OLM-Medic

    Banned
    BANNED!!!
    May 5, 2010
    6,588
    I disagree with cheap prices won't happen again. We are already seeing it with Carcanos. Everyone has to keep in mind $100 in 1988 is $220 today. So no we won't see $100 but we will see $250.

    Finns were paid $5.75 a rifle from Century. Burns I believe paid $11 each. IO didn't pay anywhere near what they are asking. They were the only bidder just like Century was the only bidder on the Samco stuff. Should give you a good idea what they paid.

    As for who changed the rules in the Senate first that would be Dems. Doesn't really matter since Trump is winning in a landslide and GOP will control Senate and make gains in the House.

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    Where are you getting this information? I couldn't find anything. Yeah I don't expect $99 mosins anymore, but it was only a few years ago that you could get a chinese mosin for only $150-180 and SKS was no more than $299. I was hoping for more like that. In the current market I just find my FFL03 kind of useless. There really isn't anything affordable I would buy over a modern gun, except maybe the Tokarev.
     

    Sirex

    Powered by natural gas
    Oct 30, 2010
    10,380
    Westminster, MD
    I don't know, but 2 factors are;

    1. Biden/Harris elected. If this happens, we are F'ed anyway, but she claimed she would block importation of assault weapons. Given their wide ranging definition of assault weapon, everything could be on the table. Then there's Biden expanding embargoes to other places/companies, as well as ammo.

    2. There has been a huge increase in gun buyers. Even liberals have realized they need weapons, and the younger socialists on the forums and Facebook pages seem to love old surplus weapons. A big increase in demand has driven prices up across the board, so even IF more stuff made it in, there's more competition for it.

    I have enough though, for myself and my kids now though. While I would love more SKS and Mosin rifles, I am running out of room, and money.
     

    JamesDong

    Banned
    BANNED!!!
    Aug 13, 2020
    3,260
    Duffield, Va
    I disagree with cheap prices won't happen again. We are already seeing it with Carcanos. Everyone has to keep in mind $100 in 1988 is $220 today. So no we won't see $100 but we will see $250.

    Finns were paid $5.75 a rifle from Century. Burns I believe paid $11 each. IO didn't pay anywhere near what they are asking. They were the only bidder just like Century was the only bidder on the Samco stuff. Should give you a good idea what they paid.

    As for who changed the rules in the Senate first that would be Dems. Doesn't really matter since Trump is winning in a landslide and GOP will control Senate and make gains in the House.

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    Question is..... who wants a Carcano except Oswald maybe?
     

    rseymorejr

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 28, 2011
    26,015
    Harford County
    I am curious as to why imports are so controlled in the first place. To me it seems like it would be in the best interest of the gov to get guns out of some of these countries. And since we arent talking about scary black guns, it seems silly to me.

    Are you kidding? Some of our politicians would rather see the North Koreans perfect their rockets before they would want us peons to get an old bolt action rifle
     

    teratos

    My hair is amazing
    MDS Supporter
    Patriot Picket
    Jan 22, 2009
    59,775
    Bel Air
    I worked at Woolworth in the Harford Mall in the mid-80's. We had M1 Garands for $99 and M1 Carbines for $89. I could have gotten a 15% discount. Of course, I was making $3.15/hr, so couldn't afford them. It is the way of things....
     

    capt14k

    Active Member
    Jul 27, 2015
    221
    Where are you getting this information? I couldn't find anything. Yeah I don't expect $99 mosins anymore, but it was only a few years ago that you could get a chinese mosin for only $150-180 and SKS was no more than $299. I was hoping for more like that. In the current market I just find my FFL03 kind of useless. There really isn't anything affordable I would buy over a modern gun, except maybe the Tokarev.
    Which info? I posted where to find Bill of ladings. Import genius is just one such site.

    What was paid? Original documents and most of these big sales are public.

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