For those of you still supporting Larry Hogan for governor...

esqappellate · Jul 20, 2018

CrazySanMan said:
Look at the vote total numbers I posted previously. 2,000 votes will not swing the election one way or the other.

Overall 2016 New Hampshire Senate Election Results
D M. Hassan 48.0% 354,268
R K. Ayotte (i) 47.9% 353,525
I A. Day 2.4% 17,702
L B. Chabot 1.8% 12,988

Result: Another Dem in the Senate by a margin of 743

ComeGet · Jul 20, 2018

Can't we just let this dead horse RIP.

Is anyone going to change their mind at this point?

Or, maybe we need a half-dozen more threads about it before the election just to make sure.

:sad20:

CrazySanMan · Jul 20, 2018

esqappellate said:
Overall 2016 New Hampshire Senate Election Results
D M. Hassan 48.0% 354,268
R K. Ayotte (i) 47.9% 353,525
I A. Day 2.4% 17,702
L B. Chabot 1.8% 12,988

Result: Another Dem in the Senate by a margin of 743

Pick those cherries!

Here's the last 50 years worth of Maryland gubernatorial election results. None are close enough that 1,000 or 2,000 votes would sway the election:

2014

The 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014.

Larry Hogan / Boyd Rutherford (Republican) - 884,400 (51.03%%)
Anthony G. Brown / Ken Ulman (Democratic) - 818,890 (47.25%)
Shawn Quinn / Lorenzo Gaztañaga (Libertarian) - 25,382 (1.46%)
Write-ins - 4,505 (0.26%)

2010

The 2010 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010.

Martin O'Malley / Anthony G. Brown (Democratic) - 1,043,724 (56.2%)
Robert L. Ehrlich / Mary D. Kane (Republican) - 775,661 (41.8%)
Susan Gaztañaga / Doug McNeil (Libertarian) - 14,124 (0.8%)
Allwine / Eidel (Green) - 11,809 (0.6%)
Knowles / Hargadon (Constitution) - 8,596 (0.5%)
Write-ins - 1,943 (0.1%)

2006

Martin O'Malley / Anthony G. Brown (D) - 942,279 (52.7%)
Robert L. Ehrlich / Kristen Cox (R) * - 825,464 (46.2%)
Ed Boyd / James Madigan (G) - 15,551 (0.9%)
Chris Driscoll / Ed Rothstein (P) - 3,481 (0.2%)

2002

Robert L. Ehrlich / Michael S. Steele (R) - 879,592 (51.55%)
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend / Charles R. Larson (D) - 813,422 (47.68%)
Spear Lancaster / Lorenzo Gaztañaga (L) - 11,546 (0.68%)

1998

Parris N. Glendening / Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D)* - 846,972 (55.17%)
Ellen Sauerbrey / Richard D. Bennett (R) - 688,357 (44.83%)

1994

Parris N. Glendening / Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) - 708,094 (50.21%)
Ellen Sauerbrey / Paul Rappaport (R) - 702,101 (49.79%)

1990

William Donald Schaefer / Melvin Steinberg (D)* - 664,015 (59.77%)
William S. Shepard / Lois Shepard (R) - 446,980 (40.23%)

1986

William Donald Schaefer / Melvin Steinberg (D) - 907,291 (82.37%)
Thomas J. Mooney / Melvin Bilal (R) - 194,185 (17.63%)

1982

Harry R. Hughes/ J. Joseph Curran, Jr. (D)* - 705,910 (61.99%)
Robert Pascal/ Newton Ivan Steers, Jr. (R) - 432,826 (38.01%)

1978

Harry R. Hughes/ Samuel W. Bogley (D) - 718,328 (70.98%)
John Glenn Beall, Jr./ Aris T. Allen (R) - 293,635 (29.02%)

1974

Marvin Mandel/ Blair Lee III (D)* - 602,648 (63.50%)
Louise Gore/ Frank B. Wade (R) - 346,449 (36.50%)

1970

Marvin Mandel/ Blair Lee III (D) - 639,579 (65.73%)
C. Stanley Blair/ Herbert John "Jack" Miller, Jr. (R) - 314,336 (32.30%)
Robert Woods Merkle, Sr./ Elbert G. Miller (American) - 19,184 (1.97%)

1966

Spiro Agnew (R) - 455,318 (49.50%)
George P. Mahoney (D) - 373,543 (40.61%)
Hyman A. Pressman (I) - 90,899 (9.88%)

Bullfrog · Jul 20, 2018

CrazySanMan said:
Those of you who think that Jealous will win if you don't vote for Hogan are delusional. No race in my lifetime has been that close. If 2,000 MDS members write in "NO GUN GRABBERS" instead of voting for Hogan, you will not sway the election one way or the other. You will however, send a strong message to the MDGOP.

From your post:

1994

Parris N. Glendening / Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) - 708,094 (50.21%)
Ellen Sauerbrey / Paul Rappaport (R) - 702,101 (49.79%)

That is slightly less than a 6000 vote margin, and you are trying to say that 2000 votes can't possibly make a difference. Think about that for a while. For those of you not voting for Hogan, do you want to wake up the next day and find out the socialist won by less than 1000 votes? Sure, it's unlikely. It's not impossible.

From the MDS front page:

Members: 24,421
Most users ever online was 4,745, May 4th, 2016 at 07:31 PM.

esqappellate · Jul 20, 2018

My only point is that *every* vote matters and you just don't know when it will matter the most. Everywhere I go to talk about 2A matters (and it is a lot of places), I ask (beg) folks to please VOTE. And New Hampshire is just one example. Ask Brochin how he feels after losing the Balt. County Ex. race by 9 (Nine!) votes. Or how Blair feels after losing the Montgomery Co. race by 79 votes. A vote is a terrible thing to waste (or not use). You simply cannot assume anything, especially in MD.

Jim12 · Jul 20, 2018

CrazySanMan said:
Look at the vote total numbers I posted previously. 2,000 votes will not swing the election one way or the other.

One vote can swing an election.

On occasion, the flip of a coin or draw of a high card has swung an election.

To flatly state at this stage of the campaign in a race where the minority party candidate already staged an upset that 2,000 votes, or even two votes will not swing an election is total speculation, to put it mildly.

Jim12 · Jul 20, 2018

CrazySanMan said:
Pick those cherries!

Here's the last 50 years worth of Maryland gubernatorial election results. None are close enough that 1,000 or 2,000 votes would sway the election:

2014

The 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014.

Larry Hogan / Boyd Rutherford (Republican) - 884,400 (51.03%%)
Anthony G. Brown / Ken Ulman (Democratic) - 818,890 (47.25%)
Shawn Quinn / Lorenzo Gaztañaga (Libertarian) - 25,382 (1.46%)
Write-ins - 4,505 (0.26%)

2010

The 2010 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010.

Martin O'Malley / Anthony G. Brown (Democratic) - 1,043,724 (56.2%)
Robert L. Ehrlich / Mary D. Kane (Republican) - 775,661 (41.8%)
Susan Gaztañaga / Doug McNeil (Libertarian) - 14,124 (0.8%)
Allwine / Eidel (Green) - 11,809 (0.6%)
Knowles / Hargadon (Constitution) - 8,596 (0.5%)
Write-ins - 1,943 (0.1%)

2006

Martin O'Malley / Anthony G. Brown (D) - 942,279 (52.7%)
Robert L. Ehrlich / Kristen Cox (R) * - 825,464 (46.2%)
Ed Boyd / James Madigan (G) - 15,551 (0.9%)
Chris Driscoll / Ed Rothstein (P) - 3,481 (0.2%)

2002

Robert L. Ehrlich / Michael S. Steele (R) - 879,592 (51.55%)
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend / Charles R. Larson (D) - 813,422 (47.68%)
Spear Lancaster / Lorenzo Gaztañaga (L) - 11,546 (0.68%)

1998

Parris N. Glendening / Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D)* - 846,972 (55.17%)
Ellen Sauerbrey / Richard D. Bennett (R) - 688,357 (44.83%)

1994

Parris N. Glendening / Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) - 708,094 (50.21%)
Ellen Sauerbrey / Paul Rappaport (R) - 702,101 (49.79%)

1990

William Donald Schaefer / Melvin Steinberg (D)* - 664,015 (59.77%)
William S. Shepard / Lois Shepard (R) - 446,980 (40.23%)

1986

William Donald Schaefer / Melvin Steinberg (D) - 907,291 (82.37%)
Thomas J. Mooney / Melvin Bilal (R) - 194,185 (17.63%)

1982

Harry R. Hughes/ J. Joseph Curran, Jr. (D)* - 705,910 (61.99%)
Robert Pascal/ Newton Ivan Steers, Jr. (R) - 432,826 (38.01%)

1978

Harry R. Hughes/ Samuel W. Bogley (D) - 718,328 (70.98%)
John Glenn Beall, Jr./ Aris T. Allen (R) - 293,635 (29.02%)

1974

Marvin Mandel/ Blair Lee III (D)* - 602,648 (63.50%)
Louise Gore/ Frank B. Wade (R) - 346,449 (36.50%)

1970

Marvin Mandel/ Blair Lee III (D) - 639,579 (65.73%)
C. Stanley Blair/ Herbert John "Jack" Miller, Jr. (R) - 314,336 (32.30%)
Robert Woods Merkle, Sr./ Elbert G. Miller (American) - 19,184 (1.97%)

1966

Spiro Agnew (R) - 455,318 (49.50%)
George P. Mahoney (D) - 373,543 (40.61%)
Hyman A. Pressman (I) - 90,899 (9.88%)

Irrelevant.

Not_an_outlaw · Jul 20, 2018

I think one thing that has not been mentioned is the long road approach to Hogan. People keep saying to vote for him because he is the lessor of two evils. Also, mentioned here and in the press is that Hogan has long term plans and aspirations for further office, potentially, the President. So with that in mind, I would recommend not voting for him. His damage may not only be to Maryland, but the whole country. Is that the message we want to send, that a moderate (actually a left of center republican) is what the country should want. What if we, the gun community, support Hogan, the one who will eventually become president and eventually goes down the gun control? Who will say "we" tried to stop that?

danb · Jul 20, 2018

Who is paying my share of the $20,000 in new taxes proposed by Jealous, assuming y'all stay home and let Jealous win.

Trick question: all of you are because I am most definitely not. I can work from VA. All of you Veruca Salt types staying home better start saving your cash.

Stoveman · Jul 20, 2018

esqappellate said:
My only point is that *every* vote matters and you just don't know when it will matters the most. Everywhere I go to talk about 2A matters (and it is a lot of places), I ask (beg) folks to please VOTE. And New Hampshire is just one example. Ask Brochin how he feels after losing the Balt. County Ex. race by 9 (Nine!) votes. Or how Blair feels after losing the Montgomery Co. race by 79 votes. A vote is a terrible thing to waste. You simply cannot assume anything, especially in MD.

My incumbent county councilman lost by two votes on June 26th. One of which was mine....

esqappellate · Jul 20, 2018

Stoveman said:
My incumbent county councilman lost by two votes on June 26th. One of which was mine....

That's just delicious!

Bullfrog · Jul 20, 2018

Not_an_outlaw said:
I think one thing that has not been mentioned is the long road approach to Hogan. People keep saying to vote for him because he is the lessor of two evils. Also, mentioned here and in the press is that Hogan has long term plans and aspirations for further office, potentially, the President. So with that in mind, I would recommend not voting for him. His damage may not only be to Maryland, but the whole country. Is that the message we want to send, that a moderate (actually a left of center republican) is what the country should want. What if we, the gun community, support Hogan, the one who will eventually become president and eventually goes down the gun control? Who will say "we" tried to stop that?

This may be the worst argument I've ever heard.

'Lets not back the republican against the socialist, because he may possibly try to run for president someday and he's not conservative enough to be president.'

Holy crap. The answer to that is to bring up his Maryland record THEN and support the better candidate(s), IF it ever happens.

Not_an_outlaw · Jul 20, 2018

Bullfrog said:
This may be the worst argument I've ever heard.

'Lets not back the republican against the socialist, because he may possibly try to run for president someday and he's not conservative enough to be president.'

Holy crap. The answer to that is to bring up his Maryland record THEN and support the better candidate(s), IF it ever happens.

That's your opinion, but I haven't seen much from Hogan other than reducing a couple of tolls. He isn't conservative at all. Twenty years ago, his behaviors would be viewed as Socialism. He doesn't really respect the Constitution. Where was he when two of out patriots were arrested? Nowhere! He doesn't really stand for anything...other than self interest. But then again, he is a politician.

CrazySanMan · Jul 20, 2018

So, are we all here to fight for gun rights, or to console each other on SINE DIE when more are lost? How do you suggest Maryland fights for it's gun rights when you vote for a governor who signed gun-grabbing legislation? (1302 was absolutely gun-grabbing legislation) How many of you have a "Molon Labe" sticker on your vehicle or gun safe or have it in your MDS signature, yet are caving in already to vote for a gun grabber? The main reason I have stayed with this site is because it was once the best in the country for keeping up to date and helping out with the 2A fight. I'm just not seeing that here anymore.

welder516 · Jul 20, 2018

I don't expect anything different from Hogan .

Abacab · Jul 20, 2018

I was never going to vote for Hogan again but everything he says and does makes me want to vote for Jealous out of spite - just burn it all down.

I under voted or explicitly voted against Hogan, all the Hogan endorsed candidates as well as the MGA people that voted for the anti-gun bills.

I hope Jealous does propose a bill banning shotguns - it would be great publicity.

danb · Jul 20, 2018

If I were Hogan or a Hogan aide reading comments like these, I would ignore us too. Honestly. I would run far far away and if I were a consultant I would tell him to slam the door the effort is pointless. This thread exemplifies why we dont have nice things.

CrazySanMan · Jul 20, 2018

danb said:
If I were Hogan or a Hogan aide reading comments like these, I would ignore us too. Honestly. I would run far far away and if I were a consultant I would tell him to slam the door the effort is pointless. This thread exemplifies why we dont have nice things.

Yup, it's because we give them up without a fight.

fidelity · Jul 20, 2018

Surprised there hasn't been a poll for the MD Governor race since the primaries.

Here's a summary for when the Hogan v Jealous matchup was hypothetical (and doesn't include 3rd party candidates) ...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e.../maryland_governor_hogan_vs_jealous-6273.html

Wondering if it will remain in blow out territory.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Occam · Jul 20, 2018

CrazySanMan said:
Yup, it's because we give them up without a fight.

No, it's because most of the people in the state - which outnumber you - put liberal Dem legislators into power. We didn't give them up, they were taken. Those acts will never be reversed by an ever-growing suburban population of mostly Democrats, need to be challenged in court. Which will take a while.

For those of you still supporting Larry Hogan for governor...

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