The HPA and silencers

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  • CrazySanMan

    2013'er
    Mar 4, 2013
    11,390
    Colorful Colorado
    Several of my friends here use silencers when they shoot and I've been wanting to get some but this bill has had me waiting for a while now. I'm not sure if I should keep waiting or bite the bullet and pay the $200 to get them.
     

    erwos

    The Hebrew Hammer
    MDS Supporter
    Mar 25, 2009
    13,866
    Rockville, MD
    Several of my friends here use silencers when they shoot and I've been wanting to get some but this bill has had me waiting for a while now. I'm not sure if I should keep waiting or bite the bullet and pay the $200 to get them.
    Supposedly the law will retroactively refund taxes paid on suppressors. I would not bet the bank on this staying in, but it's something to consider.

    I think the bigger consideration, long-term, is that the market for suppressors would radically change if the HPA passes. Right now, QD is worth a lot on a suppressor since they're so stupidly expensive and most people don't buy many. If we start seeing cheap-and-good-enough centerfire suppressors at $100-$150 due to huge sales volume, I think a lot of shooters will just go with direct-thread. Ditto for the multi-caliber suppressors like the SiCo Hybrid and Griffin Optimus... if you can just buy a bunch of suppressors for all your guns, you don't need one for all of them (especially given how insanely expensive QD mounts are these days).

    So, really, I'd worry less about your tax money and more about whether suppressor prices will plummet.
     

    Pinecone

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 4, 2013
    28,175
    Heck check the prices for suppressors in Europe. They are cash and carry, and in UK, required for hunting.

    Rimfire suppressors are in the $40 - $50 range.

    AWESOME.
     

    ToolAA

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jun 17, 2016
    10,499
    God's Country
    My opinion on this is that prices from the established brands on existing designs will fall by 50% initially. With the elimination of the tax and regulation and the market will grow by 200%

    Longer term more players will enter the market. All of these companies will need to continue to improve design to gain market share and keep profits growing. At that point a normal market will exists and we'll see a full strata of prices just like the AR-15 market.

    There will likely also be a thriving used market too!

    Bottom line if you want one sooner than later buy now. It's not an investment.
     

    Melnic

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Dec 27, 2012
    15,278
    HoCo
    If it passes, I believe that the prices will sky rocket (not taking the $200 tax stamp into consideration, just the item price tag) until production increases as demand will be high and supply will be low. Nothing will be in inventory because of the supply. Any left and someone will price gouge (someone, not everyone, and not most) so what is left is ^$
    Make it easier to lawfully purchase and more will want one for their lawful purpose. thus higher demand.
    Simple laws of supply and demand. A law all gun owners follow whether they like it or not :)

    Basically, if it looks like it will pass, I predict people will buy them up prior to going into effect and then get them out of jail once signed.
     

    erwos

    The Hebrew Hammer
    MDS Supporter
    Mar 25, 2009
    13,866
    Rockville, MD
    But the supply shortage will only be temporary. In the longer-term - say, within a year or two - prices will fall like a stone.
     

    Shane762

    Active Member
    Jan 2, 2011
    122
    New Market, MD
    If it passes and is signed into law I think it'll make for a repeat of the summer of 2013 here in Maryland. Not much chance that the MD GA won't ban suppressor sales in their next meeting. Presumably the law will go into affect October 1st of that year so we'll have 6-7 months to get as many purchased as we can. All in a market where everyone in the country is trying to get their hands on them.
     

    GolfR

    Ultimate Member
    Oct 20, 2016
    1,324
    Columbia MD
    If it passes and is signed into law I think it'll make for a repeat of the summer of 2013 here in Maryland. Not much chance that the MD GA won't ban suppressor sales in their next meeting. Presumably the law will go into affect October 1st of that year so we'll have 6-7 months to get as many purchased as we can. All in a market where everyone in the country is trying to get their hands on them.

    This is my guess as well. All the more reason to bite the bullet and stock up now. It will be icing on the cake if they refund my $200 but I'm not holding my breath there either.
     

    tkd4life

    Ultimate Member
    Sep 10, 2010
    1,737
    Southern Maryland
    This is my guess as well. All the more reason to bite the bullet and stock up now. It will be icing on the cake if they refund my $200 but I'm not holding my breath there either.

    Agreed. My logic is I made a $400 donation to the ATF if the HPA passes. That is a big IF.
     

    Melnic

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Dec 27, 2012
    15,278
    HoCo
    But the supply shortage will only be temporary. In the longer-term - say, within a year or two - prices will fall like a stone.

    2 years is FOREVER! especially with ANY possibility of a new president. Those 2 years would be followed by 1 more year of panic buying
     

    j_h_smith

    Ultimate Member
    Jul 28, 2007
    28,516
    This is my guess as well. All the more reason to bite the bullet and stock up now. It will be icing on the cake if they refund my $200 but I'm not holding my breath there either.

    I heard this morning if the bill passes, you will get a Tax Credit on your federal return for that amount. No cash will be coming your way.
     

    tkd4life

    Ultimate Member
    Sep 10, 2010
    1,737
    Southern Maryland
    I heard this morning if the bill passes, you will get a Tax Credit on your federal return for that amount. No cash will be coming your way.

    Semantics really. I don't care if I get $200 more on my check at the end of the year, or in my case $200 less than I have to pay. It's still $200 as long as you file taxes.
     

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