En banc Decision in Peruta -- a loss

DanGuy48 · May 22, 2017

Thanks all.

danb · May 22, 2017

Normally I would agree with the fact that after two relists the odds of a grant go down, but there was/is a huge backlog of cases relisted and rescheduled which they held until Gorsuch participated in conference. From the may 11th conference there were almost 20 redistributed cases.

Nobody · May 22, 2017

2 more weeks ?

Nobody

danb · May 22, 2017

Redistributed for conference May 25th

Inigoes · May 22, 2017

Could this be the exceptional case where they court holds a case over until next session?

Peaceful John · May 22, 2017

Inigoes said:
Could this be the exceptional case where they court holds a case over until next session?

And if it is, does that indicate that they have been told of J. Kennedy's pending retirement?

danb · May 22, 2017

For mid may 2015 conference cases that were redistributed, there is exactly 50-50 chance the case was denied cert (with out without dissent, but usually with), 50-50 chance the case was "decided" (Per curiam, GVR, or scheduled for oral arguments and decided on merits). The only cases that were held over until next term were ones where the SCT requested a response from the Solicitor General. There are a few cases from 2015 and 2016 where they redistributed the case a few times, then asked for a response (all I checked were ultimately denied). FWIW, there are 10 more cases redistributed compared to the same conference last year, and 6 more cases redistributed than 2015.

I'd say at this point it's exactly a coin flip whether its a grant or denial.

press1280 · May 22, 2017

Inigoes said:
Could this be the exceptional case where they court holds a case over until next session?

I don't know if that would necessarily be exceptional, remember the court is getting cert petitions all the time so no doubt they get some at the final conference in June and they don't act on it.

My guess is with the amount of rescheduled/relists already occurring, we will get action before summer recess.

danb · May 22, 2017

Once you get to the late June conferences, lots of cases were held over in 2015 and re-distributed in Sept.

If this were held over 5 more conferences (last conference is June 25th) we would almost surely be in dissent from denial of cert territory.

fightinbluhen51 · May 23, 2017

danb said:
For mid may 2015 conference cases that were redistributed, there is exactly 50-50 chance the case was denied cert (with out without dissent, but usually with), 50-50 chance the case was "decided" (Per curiam, GVR, or scheduled for oral arguments and decided on merits). The only cases that were held over until next term were ones where the SCT requested a response from the Solicitor General. There are a few cases from 2015 and 2016 where they redistributed the case a few times, then asked for a response (all I checked were ultimately denied). FWIW, there are 10 more cases redistributed compared to the same conference last year, and 6 more cases redistributed than 2015.

I'd say at this point it's exactly a coin flip whether its a grant or denial.

Accounting for previous "variable change", the odds should go up. Though I think the odds for Yahtzee are still better.

danb · May 23, 2017

fightinbluhen51 said:
Accounting for previous "variable change", the odds should go up. Though I think the odds for Yahtzee are still better.

variable change?

Kharn · May 23, 2017

We're in uncharted territory due to having a new justice this close to the end of the term. Most justices retire in June and their replacement is seated in August.

Nobody · May 27, 2017

I guess we will hear on Tuesday as Monday is Memorial day?

NOBODY

press1280 · May 27, 2017

Nobody said:
I guess we will hear on Tuesday as Monday is Memorial day?

NOBODY

Yep

Bob Lee $wagger · May 27, 2017

As an employee of the SCOTUS I can confirm Tuesday as a big YEP.

HaveBlue · May 27, 2017

Bob Lee $wagger said:
As an employee of the SCOTUS I can confirm Tuesday as a big YEP.

I gotta ask. Do you think we'll hear an "answer" or that it's being re-scheduled?

DC-W · May 27, 2017

If he knew, he wouldn't tell you

I'm going to be the pessimist and say it's been denied with a dissent.

Hoping I'm wrong.

esqappellate · May 27, 2017

DC-W said:
If he knew, he wouldn't tell you

I'm going to be the pessimist and say it's been denied with a dissent.

Hoping I'm wrong.

If so, it probably won't be on Tuesday. Too soon. Maybe on the last order day of the Term. Binderup has a better chance of a grant on the SG's petition, but that has been relisted 3 times too. Tuesday may be interesting.

Inigoes · May 27, 2017

Here's to hoping for a per curiam :fingerscrossed:

press1280 · May 27, 2017

Inigoes said:
Here's to hoping for a per curiam

Me too but I just can't imagine how other than the granting of the state's intervention which IMO would be pointless since Sheriff Prieto on the Richards case would keep fighting unlike Gore. We would waste more time just to have another similar opinion by the 9th.

En banc Decision in Peruta -- a loss

The #1 community for Gun Owners of the Northeast

Member Benefits:

Ultimate Member

dont be a dumbass

Ultimate Member

dont be a dumbass

Head'n for the hills

Active Member

dont be a dumbass

Ultimate Member

dont be a dumbass

"Quack Pot Call Honker"

dont be a dumbass

Ultimate Member

Ultimate Member

Ultimate Member

Roll Tide

HaveBlue

Ultimate Member

President, MSI

Head'n for the hills

Ultimate Member

Users who are viewing this thread

Log in

Forum statistics