Article: Murder Rate Drops in 38 States, with FBI state statistics

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  • BeoBill

    Crank in the Third Row
    MDS Supporter
    Oct 3, 2013
    27,064
    南馬里蘭州鮑伊
    US Homicides Fall for Second Year as Murder Rate Drops in 38 States
    https://thelead.com/articles/homici...second-year-as-murder-rate-drops-in-38-states
    As 2018 came to an end, politicians and media pundits insisted that " gun violence " was growing and hitting crisis levels .

    While a homicide rate of anything greater than zero is an measure of very-real human misery, it nonetheless turns out that fewer people were murdered in 2018 than in the year before. Moreover, 2018 was the second year in a row during which the homicide rate declined.

    According to new homicide statistics released by the FBI last month, the homicide rate in the United States was 5 per 100,000 people. That was down from 5.3 per 100,000 in 2017 and down from 5.4 in 2016. In 2014, the homicide rate in the US hit a 57-year low, dropping to 4.4 per 100,000, making it the lowest homicide rate recorded since 1957...
     

    ADR

    Ultimate Member
    Aug 17, 2011
    4,171
    The number of attempted homicides should always be looked at in comparison as well. Not saying it hasn't gone down, however, one thing we've noticed (as a federal LEO and trainer) is that in some cases while the trend of violence seems to decrease, it's actually the same or higher but with lower success rates. Medical advances are one reason this can be skewed. (I/E - The same or more people were shot for example but, more were saved than in previous reporting years.)
     

    traveller

    The one with two L
    Nov 26, 2010
    18,266
    variable
    Take the class-A shitholes out of that number and you have rates comparable to all those utopian european countries we are supposed to emulate.
     

    StantonCree

    Watch your beer
    Jan 23, 2011
    23,932
    The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. It’s self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. I’d trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before I’d trust UCR numbers.
     

    TheOriginalMexicanBob

    Ultimate Member
    Jul 2, 2017
    32,179
    Sun City West, AZ
    The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. It’s self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. I’d trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before I’d trust UCR numbers.

    Your point is well taken...but the UCR is what we have to work with as it's essentially the only game in town. Comparisons year-by-year and multi-year trends is what's pretty much universally accepted. The FBI doesn't add commentary or draw conclusions...they leave that to others to use and misuse.

    As you said...the information is basically useless outside of trying to "prove" whatever point one wants to make.

    It's accepted by many that you can tell when a Police Chief is getting ready to retire...the crime rate goes down in his last couple of years as some crimes are reclassified down so he can say his administration cut the crime rate. The next Police Chief sees crime go up at the beginning of his tenure as crimes are being properly classified again...and so on and so on.
     

    Boats

    Beer, Bikes n Boomsticks
    Mar 13, 2012
    4,073
    Howeird County
    The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. It’s self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. I’d trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before I’d trust UCR numbers.

    refrences?

    or is this just a hunch/conspiracy theory?

    (looking for causation not correlation, btw)
     

    Bob A

    όυ φροντισ
    MDS Supporter
    Patriot Picket
    Nov 11, 2009
    30,691
    The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. It’s self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. I’d trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before I’d trust ̶U̶C̶R̶ ̶n̶u̶m̶b̶e̶r̶s̶ the FBI.

    FIFY
     

    StantonCree

    Watch your beer
    Jan 23, 2011
    23,932
    refrences?

    or is this just a hunch/conspiracy theory?

    (looking for causation not correlation, btw)

    https://lmgtfy.com/?q=police+fudging+stats&s=g


    I’m sure there would be more results if i didn’t use the word fudge HOWEVER these are the stats your getting in the UCR. I have a bunch of personal inner working knowledge of this too but it’s the internet so my word is poop and it doesn’t behoove me to discuss specifics as i only have one place to compare.
     

    Biggfoot44

    Ultimate Member
    Aug 2, 2009
    32,884
    Yes, UCR are self reported .

    Within that self reporting , the raw number of dead bodies is probably the least fudgable . ( The number of good guys killing bad guys IS seriously fudged downwards, but that's a different discussion .)
     

    FrankOceanXray

    Ultimate Member
    Oct 29, 2008
    12,028
    refrences?

    or is this just a hunch/conspiracy theory?

    (looking for causation not correlation, btw)

    Say a door was kicked in, or patio slider door was smashed... Perhaps something's missing therein the residence.

    Burglary? Or say vandalism with a theft?

    Beat up dude on ground, pockets gone through... Robbery or assault with a theft or lost property?
     

    traveller

    The one with two L
    Nov 26, 2010
    18,266
    variable
    Based on the assumption fudging is constant or near constant.

    On a state by state basis yes. For each police chief who fudges them up to get more money, there is another one who fudges them down because he owes something to the mayor. The only exception is DC as there is no other jurisdiction to create the proper 'balance of lies'.
     

    Steve_Zissou

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 11, 2017
    1,042
    Baltimore City
    US Homicides Fall for Second Year as Murder Rate Drops in 38 States
    https://thelead.com/articles/homici...second-year-as-murder-rate-drops-in-38-states

    There is a trend to be observed vis a vis which states possess high homicide rates and which ones do not, but even the decently heterodox Mises Institute won't touch it with a 10-foot pole. This should be important to ANY 2A advocate because our country's unacceptably high homicide rate is one of the most potent arrows in the gun grabbers quivers when they look for politically palatable excuses to strip away even more of our gun rights.

    The only exception is DC as there is no other jurisdiction to create the proper 'balance of lies'.

    Don't forget the overwhelming desire to keep all of those real estate developer bucks flowing in and not scare away any of the highly educated 20-something white women buying all of those flashy condos in NoMa, etc.
     

    BeoBill

    Crank in the Third Row
    MDS Supporter
    Oct 3, 2013
    27,064
    南馬里蘭州鮑伊
    https://lmgtfy.com/?q=police+fudging+stats&s=g


    I’m sure there would be more results if i didn’t use the word fudge HOWEVER these are the stats your getting in the UCR. I have a bunch of personal inner working knowledge of this too but it’s the internet so my word is poop and it doesn’t behoove me to discuss specifics as i only have one place to compare.

    So you're saying we can't use OFFICIAL USG statistics to refute the made up BS numbers by the likes of Everytown and the Brady bunch?

    ETA: I'm sure the venerable and much referenced NIH study also is based on "fudge" numbers, but it also contains official taxpayer funded "objective" statistics rather than numbers pulled from "nether regions."
     

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