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Old November 6th, 2019, 07:07 PM #1
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Article: Murder Rate Drops in 38 States, with FBI state statistics

US Homicides Fall for Second Year as Murder Rate Drops in 38 States
https://thelead.com/articles/homicid...s-in-38-states
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As 2018 came to an end, politicians and media pundits insisted that " gun violence " was growing and hitting crisis levels .

While a homicide rate of anything greater than zero is an measure of very-real human misery, it nonetheless turns out that fewer people were murdered in 2018 than in the year before. Moreover, 2018 was the second year in a row during which the homicide rate declined.

According to new homicide statistics released by the FBI last month, the homicide rate in the United States was 5 per 100,000 people. That was down from 5.3 per 100,000 in 2017 and down from 5.4 in 2016. In 2014, the homicide rate in the US hit a 57-year low, dropping to 4.4 per 100,000, making it the lowest homicide rate recorded since 1957...
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Old November 6th, 2019, 07:15 PM #2
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The number of attempted homicides should always be looked at in comparison as well. Not saying it hasn't gone down, however, one thing we've noticed (as a federal LEO and trainer) is that in some cases while the trend of violence seems to decrease, it's actually the same or higher but with lower success rates. Medical advances are one reason this can be skewed. (I/E - The same or more people were shot for example but, more were saved than in previous reporting years.)
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Old November 6th, 2019, 07:18 PM #3
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Take the class-A shitholes out of that number and you have rates comparable to all those utopian european countries we are supposed to emulate.
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Old November 6th, 2019, 07:33 PM #4
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The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. It’s self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. I’d trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before I’d trust UCR numbers.
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Old November 6th, 2019, 08:08 PM #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StantonCree View Post
The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. Itís self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. Iíd trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before Iíd trust UCR numbers.
Your point is well taken...but the UCR is what we have to work with as it's essentially the only game in town. Comparisons year-by-year and multi-year trends is what's pretty much universally accepted. The FBI doesn't add commentary or draw conclusions...they leave that to others to use and misuse.

As you said...the information is basically useless outside of trying to "prove" whatever point one wants to make.

It's accepted by many that you can tell when a Police Chief is getting ready to retire...the crime rate goes down in his last couple of years as some crimes are reclassified down so he can say his administration cut the crime rate. The next Police Chief sees crime go up at the beginning of his tenure as crimes are being properly classified again...and so on and so on.
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Old November 6th, 2019, 08:30 PM #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StantonCree View Post
The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. It’s self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. I’d trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before I’d trust UCR numbers.
refrences?

or is this just a hunch/conspiracy theory?

(looking for causation not correlation, btw)
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Old November 6th, 2019, 08:32 PM #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StantonCree View Post
The UCR reports are 100% a inaccurate account. Itís self reported from agencies with skins in the crime drop game. Iíd trust Taco Bell before an all white outfit pool party with no bathroom before Iíd trust ̶U̶C̶R̶ ̶n̶u̶m̶b̶e̶r̶s̶ the FBI.
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Old November 6th, 2019, 08:40 PM #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boats View Post
refrences?

or is this just a hunch/conspiracy theory?

(looking for causation not correlation, btw)
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=police+fudging+stats&s=g


Iím sure there would be more results if i didnít use the word fudge HOWEVER these are the stats your getting in the UCR. I have a bunch of personal inner working knowledge of this too but itís the internet so my word is poop and it doesnít behoove me to discuss specifics as i only have one place to compare.
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Old November 6th, 2019, 09:00 PM #9
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And of course Maryland my Maryland did not let us down. Smh
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Old November 6th, 2019, 09:08 PM #10
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Yes, UCR are self reported .

Within that self reporting , the raw number of dead bodies is probably the least fudgable . ( The number of good guys killing bad guys IS seriously fudged downwards, but that's a different discussion .)
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