Premature mortality in Maryland: a failure in governance?

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  • fidelity

    piled higher and deeper
    MDS Supporter
    Aug 15, 2012
    22,400
    Frederick County
    ...
    My math isn't good but that's just messed up mayoralship not governance

    I agree. City council deserves blame too. I used governance with a small "g" on purpose, but I think given the long-term problem that Maryland has had with homicides, past Governors are partly culpable as well.

    The numbers are an anomaly compared nationwide.

    One could say ...

    1) it's a small sample size and there is significant statistical fluctuation ... except it's not. We're 19th in state population and the homicide numbers have been stubbornly high.

    2) we're geographically, culturally, or economically isolated or distinct. While this might prove true for Hawaii, Maryland is well integrated in mid Atlantic states and should be comparable to them.

    3) we've had remarkable success in suicide prevention programs in the state so our suicide numbers are unusually low. I've never heard of the Maryland example in this regard and I'm sure that the politicians would crow about it if there was distinct and effective suicide prevention program. Maybe they'd even use it to develop a program that lowered drug overdose deaths.

    I ran the numbers for if we had a 2:1 gun suicide to gun related homicide ratio in Maryland, leaving the absolute number of homicides constant. That would take us to roughly 18.7 firearm related deaths per 100,000 in the US and 8th on the list.

    4) Maryland's economy is unusually strong, and this leads to a lower number of suicides. There might be some merit to this argument, but I don't think it's the whole story. Eight of the 10 states with the least number of poor and stronger economies all had more suicides than homicides. Some dramatically more. It didn't seem to correlate with whether the states had increased gun control. Like Maryland, New Jersey is an outlier with more firearm-related homicides than suicides.

    Any way that I looked at the numbers or considered why this nationwide ratio is so different in Maryland leads to the conclusion that we have an unusual number of homicides relative to the state's overall economic well being. It should go without saying, but we don't have more guns and we don't have lax gun control laws relative a majority of states in the US or in the mid Atlantic. Our problem is independent of gun control and likely won't be solved with more of it.



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    traveller

    The one with two L
    Nov 26, 2010
    18,266
    variable
    As for "drug overdoses and violence in the same areas." Appalachia and Cumberland have a huge opiate problem. Baltimore has had a high murder rate since 1800s. What makes pockets of Chicago, Baltimore, and New Orleans special? Is it drugs, or pockets of culture that simply do not value life and shoot people over grudges?

    The same holds true in many states. You have brutal poverty, meth and heroin in places like rural MO, TN and KS yet folks don't walk up to other dealers and shoot them in the head. But then you go to KCMO or Memphis and it's wholesale violence.
    It's not drugs, it's not poverty and it's not skin color. It's urban violence culture that adds the key ingredient.
     

    fidelity

    piled higher and deeper
    MDS Supporter
    Aug 15, 2012
    22,400
    Frederick County
    More number play. If we take our firearm-related suicide number, divide in half to hypothetically project firearm-related homicides, Maryland goes to approx 6.3 firearm-related deaths per 100,000, putting us at 6th lowest in the US. This would be behind Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, and Connecticut, and just ahead of Minnesota. I doubt that this is something that we can achieve if there is an ingrained culture of violence (as Traveler suggests) in Baltimore and parts of PG county. But we can likely improve/lower our overall numbers if we focused on breaking the cycle of violence vs measures with a diminishing marginal benefit.



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    babalou

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Aug 12, 2013
    16,020
    Glenelg
    hey

    The same holds true in many states. You have brutal poverty, meth and heroin in places like rural MO, TN and KS yet folks don't walk up to other dealers and shoot them in the head. But then you go to KCMO or Memphis and it's wholesale violence.
    It's not drugs, it's not poverty and it's not skin color. It's urban violence culture that adds the key ingredient.

    I believe there is a lot of truth to this.
     

    traveller

    The one with two L
    Nov 26, 2010
    18,266
    variable
    More number play. If we take our firearm-related suicide number, divide in half to hypothetically project firearm-related homicides, Maryland goes to approx 6.3 firearm-related deaths per 100,000, putting us at 6th lowest in the US. This would be behind Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, and Connecticut, and just ahead of Minnesota. I doubt that this is something that we can achieve if there is an ingrained culture of violence (as Traveler suggests) in Baltimore and parts of PG county. But we can likely improve/lower our overall numbers if we focused on breaking the cycle of violence vs measures with a diminishing marginal benefit.

    One way to 'break the cycle of violence' is to lock up those who commit those crimes and keep them out of commission for a prolonged period of time. Yes, give people pre-trial release in accordance with constitutional guidelines, but if they violate the conditions of their pre-trial release, keep them locked up. A sizeable percentage of the 'triggerpullers' is under the supervision of the pre-trial release system or the parole system. Few of these people should be on the street in the first place.
     

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