NYC CCW case is at SCOTUS!

camo556 · Nov 3, 2021

press1280 said:
From what I heard we have Roberts

6-3 we win

that's what I heard as well.
the betting markets agree as well. Roberts "reverse" went up.

777GSOTB · Nov 3, 2021

PO2012 said:
I agree that we're going to win.

I do believe, however, that the opinion will be stronger if Roberts votes against us and Thomas writes the majority holding.

So-called good cause permitting schemes are on their last legs. This decision will finally force MD to start issuing unrestricted W&C permits to ordinary citizens. The only question in my mind is what hoops will be added by the legislature. I expect a steep increase in the cost of the permit and an increase in the amount of training required. I also expect nearly every location to be declared a sensitive location to include banks, public transportation and all entertainment venues.

Don't forget carry insurance, safe requirements, mental health evaluation...on an on. Each one will have to be challenged. Yeah, just like I anticipated...A long tradition of permitting says Kav, with no historical support to back that up. Not in founding era..Big POS Well, you guys will most likely get what you wanted, a right conditioned upon a contractual agreement...Bravo

hdatontodo · Nov 3, 2021

Earlier news videos talking about the basics of the case and one mentions a possible ruling on standard of review for such cases.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/supreme-court-hear-biggest-gun-083005075.html

teratos · Nov 3, 2021

777GSOTB said:
Don't forget carry insurance, safe requirements, mental health evaluation...on an on. Each one will have to be challenged. Yeah, just like I anticipated...A long tradition of permitting says Kav, with no historical support to back that up. Not in founding era..Big POS Well, you guys will most likely get what you wanted, a right conditioned upon a contractual agreement...Bravo

Once carry outside the home becomes established as a civil right, it becomes very difficult to put contingencies on the exercise of the right.

delaware_export · Nov 3, 2021

well, one would hope. i would.

that said, we've see what lower courts have done with heller.

maybe it depends on how FIRM the ruling is in this case. a weak ruling will have the usual culprits doing what they do... hoping for a change in the court before the next case is taken in 10 years....

teratos said:
Once carry outside the home becomes established as a civil right, it becomes very difficult to put contingencies on the exercise of the right.

ngman · Nov 3, 2021

PO2012 said:
I agree that we're going to win.

I do believe, however, that the opinion will be stronger if Roberts votes against us and Thomas writes the majority holding.

So-called good cause permitting schemes are on their last legs. This decision will finally force MD to start issuing unrestricted W&C permits to ordinary citizens. The only question in my mind is what hoops will be added by the legislature. I expect a steep increase in the cost of the permit and an increase in the amount of training required. I also expect nearly every location to be declared a sensitive location to include banks, public transportation and all entertainment venues.

I'd bet (hope) Roberts votes for us and assigns Thomas to write the decision.

AKbythebay · Nov 3, 2021

Feels like a 5-4 win or possibly a 6-3 win if Roberts joins. He's the only conservative I have a bad feeling on. But you never know...

AKbythebay · Nov 3, 2021

Wonder how these justices on the left would feel if to get an abortion you had to take a training class at your own expense, get finger printed and apply for an abortion permit at your own expense, and if the rules, costs, and exceptions were different in practically every state and county in the country? And the last I checked abortions aren't even mentioned in the constitution.

KevinK · Nov 3, 2021

AKbythebay said:
Feels like a 5-4 win or possibly a 6-3 win if Roberts joins. He's the only ~~conservative~~ closet liberal I have a bad feeling on. But you never know...

Fixed

clandestine · Nov 3, 2021

PO2012 said:
I agree that we're going to win.

I do believe, however, that the opinion will be stronger if Roberts votes against us and Thomas writes the majority holding.

So-called good cause permitting schemes are on their last legs. This decision will finally force MD to start issuing unrestricted W&C permits to ordinary citizens. The only question in my mind is what hoops will be added by the legislature. I expect a steep increase in the cost of the permit and an increase in the amount of training required. I also expect nearly every location to be declared a sensitive location to include banks, public transportation and all entertainment venues.

I guess the Maryland Permit Process could be worse, but I hope not. It's already one of the most stringent in the country.

Live Scan Prints
Mental Background Check
Numerous Criminal Database Checks
16 Hour Course with Live fire Qualification
Multiple References
Online Only Application (Requires Computer Access and Requires Documents be Scanned and Uploaded)
Interview
Digital Passport Photo
HQL to Purchase Handgun (Similar Background check as Permit)
77r to Purchase Handgun (Similar Background check as Permit)

When you account for the mandatory class, ammunition, travel, meals, lodging (some instances), livescan, application fees it can run $500.00 to $800.00 for a 2 year permit and that does not cover the carry weapon, belt, holster and other necessities. Renewal can run $300.00 to $600.00 for a 3 year permit.

I guess they could require registration of a carry handgun (like DC), and make the qualification more stringent like Rhode Island which is 30 shots @ 75' at a B22 with a 195+ out of 300.

PO2012 · Nov 3, 2021

AKbythebay said:
Wonder how these justices on the left would feel if to get an abortion you had to take a training class at your own expense, get finger printed and apply for an abortion permit at your own expense, and if the rules, costs, and exceptions were different in practically every state and county in the country? And the last I checked abortions aren't even mentioned in the constitution.

Even more to the point, why should convicted felons have the right to remain silent or be represented by an attorney? If it's acceptable to strip someone entirely of one Constitutional right completely based on a criminal conviction even after they've finished their sentence then logically you can strip them of all their rights in perpetuity.

Isn't there a compelling public safety argument to be made that we could measurably reduce crime if Police were allowed to interrogate career criminals indefinitely over their pleas and keep them from having counsel? Of course there is. Nevertheless, the Constitution allows no such thing. Same thing here. There is no legitimate Constitutional basis to require a permit to exercise a Constitutional right, legal sophistry and questionable precedent aside.

delaware_export · Nov 3, 2021

I think robert’s wants to write the pro 2a position as weakly as possible and will go 2a just for that reason.

My question for the legal eagles is:

If it’s 6-3 and roberts writes the majority opinion what happens if 4 of the 6 want a fire and brimstone ruling and 2 don’t. And the 4 write their own. What if they can’t agree on the level of how strongly pro2a they go?

What happens? Would robert’s and +1 go anti 2a? Or still be 6/3 and ?? What conflicting but pro 2a rules for infringing states to cherry pick again?

fidelity · Nov 3, 2021

In some cases there will be different majority opinions exploring different facets of the law. Thus there could be a 5-4 vote on one aspect of the ruling and a 6-3 on another. I'm not enough of a court watcher to understand when/how this happens, but I don't think Roberts would be able to inhibit 5 other justices to make a clear, definitive ruling on the right to bear without an arbitrary government blessing based on an artificial standard.

My bigger concern is that he's able to persuade one or two of the more conservative bloc (insofar as gun rights) over to a moderated opinion.

delaware_export · Nov 3, 2021

(not arguing with you... just asking/thinking with the keyboard)

well, with heller, we see the lower courts in the anti2a districts, like the 9th, quoting the dissent from heller, not the majority. or focusing on one or two minor sections of the majority... maybe messing with a few punctuation points, and ignoring heller.

you may not carry a firearm! for any purpose! whatsoever! being one. (example of punctuation changed, changing meaning)

and agree with you completely about him being able to swing ... ?acb? or ??? over. for a 2 of 6 majority opinion while the 4 of 6 ?concurring opinion? is ignored. (the 4/6 being the fire/brimstone) ruling vs a wishy washy 2 of 6/3 ruling) and how the usual culprit districts would handle that.

fidelity said:
In some cases there will be different majority opinions exploring different facets of the law. Thus there could be a 5-4 vote on one aspect of the ruling and a 6-3 on another. I'm not enough of a court watcher to understand when/how this happens, but I don't think Roberts would be able to inhibit 5 other justices to make a clear, definitive ruling on the right to bear without an arbitrary government blessing based on an artificial standard.

My bigger concern is that he's able to persuade one or two of the more conservative bloc (insofar as gun rights) over to a moderated opinion.

Occam · Nov 3, 2021

I will, by inference, take it that a lot of pretty smart industry analysts listened in and heard, "This will be good for gun sales." Checked my portfolio: Ruger up over 3% since the hearing, Smith & Wesson up over 4%.

trickg · Nov 3, 2021

delaware_export said:
(not arguing with you... just asking/thinking with the keyboard)

well, with heller, we see the lower courts in the anti2a districts, like the 9th, quoting the dissent from heller, not the majority. or focusing on one or two minor sections of the majority... maybe messing with a few punctuation points, and ignoring heller.

That's precisely what Frosh did - he cherry picked one comment out of Heller and used it as a basis for policy, completely ignoring the overall context of the majority text.

camo556 · Nov 3, 2021

TTAG assembled a distinguished panel of Second Amendment legal experts to discuss this mornings arguments in the case of New York Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen before the Supreme Court

Decoy · Nov 3, 2021

camo556 said:

Beat me to it, came here to post the same video.lol

fidelity · Nov 3, 2021

Occam said:
I will, by inference, take it that a lot of pretty smart industry analysts listened in and heard, "This will be good for gun sales." Checked my portfolio: Ruger up over 3% since the hearing, Smith & Wesson up over 4%.

Yep, I was thinking that I should probably get that Sig P365XL sooner. There'll be a run on carry guns if there's a favorable ruling

fidelity · Nov 3, 2021

camo556 said:

Decoy said:
Beat me to it, came here to post the same video.lol

Excellent group of participants in this. Thanks fellas

NYC CCW case is at SCOTUS!

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