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Old July 22nd, 2018, 11:35 AM #1
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Mike Smigiel's thoughts on Hogan

I keep hearing a couple reasons being repeated why conservatives must vote to re-elect Governor Hogan and why Governor Hogan cannot possibly lose the election. I would like to honestly and dispassionately address some of the reasons being repeated out there and invite your thoughts on these issues. We are being told that if conservatives do not vote for Hogan then that non-vote is effectively a vote for Ben Jealous. Under this logic when Hogan refused to vote for Trump and wrote in his father's name, as he has stated he did, How is that not a vote for Hillary? The second argument that is being made for why all conservatives should support Hogan is that we need to have him in office in order to change the heavily gerrymandered districts so as to get more conservative representation in Congress. I see two problems with this theory, first, it asks Conservatives to take a leap of faith and believe that Gov. Hogan would do what is right for Conservatives as opposed to what is best for his long-term political goals, based upon his actions these last four years we would have no reason to believe he will do what is in the interest of the conservative minority as opposed to the progressive majority or his political future. Just a couple examples of this from his four years as Governor are as follows: Maryland's 2A community, I know few if any who plan to vote for the Governor who has done nothing for the 2A community because he does not see them as having anywhere else to go. You only have to look back to Governor Ehrlich to see the error of this logic. Ehrlich asked "What are they going to do, vote for O'Malley? The 2A community did not vote for O'Malley, they just did not vote! Gov. Hogan is about to prove the axiom put forth by George Santayana, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

Likewise, do you believe the pro-business folks in Western Maryland who are sitting atop billions of dollars of natural gas that can be extracted through fracking are going to vote for the Governor who unilaterally surrendered the economic prosperity of a whole conservative area of the State in order to appease the progressive environmental zealots? How about all those who voted for the conservative Republican Central Committee members in Carroll County who fulfilled their Constitutional duty of sending a Senator nominee name to the Governor, to fill a vacancy, only to have the Governor decide to demand that the Central Committee send him three names, so he could choose one of the three, thus, rejecting the Carroll County Central Committee's choice of whom they would prefer to have represent them in the State Legislature. Not only did the Carroll County Republicans have to watch the Republican Executive branch of government choose who would represent them in the State Legislature, to add insult to injury, the Republican Governor did not apply this novel Constitutional interpretation to the Democrat Central Committees when they proferred a legislative candidate's name to fill a vacancy. Democrats have been allowed to present one name, and that name has been selected, while Republicans have been forced to present three names, so the Governor selects the person he wants to see in the Legislature. The real insidiousness of this change is that in the future a Democratic Governor will be asking Republican Central Committees to provide three names to fill vacancies and then the Democrat Governor will get to select the weakest of the three to be the Republican representative. How motivated do you think those conservatives in Carroll County or any Republican Central Committee member paying attention will be to vote for this Governor to serve four more years? Adding to the Conservative groups above who are not likely to vote for Hogan would be many Trump supporters who have heard the Governor say he did not vote for President Trump and have watched the Governor try to curry favor with Democrat leadership by distancing himself from President Trump. When you lose that much of your base it is not likely you win a 2nd term. I would not put a lot of stock in the 60%+ approval rating Hogan is credited with because as I recall Governor Ehrlich was voted out with a 60 % + approval rating. The last point I will make is that contrary to the popular narrative, the best chance for achieving real change to the redistricting in Maryland, which would result in more conservative representation, may not necessarily be the re-election of Governor Hogan, not only because he has no incentive to help conservatives, if he is seeking higher office, but actually the best chance for real change in the redistricting is if an African American is elected as the first Black Governor of Maryland. Let me explain why I say this. The Black Caucus and the Delegations from Baltimore City, Montgomery County and Prince George's County are all aware, and were promised during the last redistricting, that "Majority Minority Districts" would be drawn in the majority African American areas of the State. This would result in African Americans being represented by African Americans in Congress instead of having the African American communities represented by white male democrats because of the way that the black communities have been sliced up in the previous gerrymandered redistricting. So if a black Governor is elected and the Black Caucus and the Delegations from the Big Three demand that the promises to create majority minority districts be kept then there would be a consolidation of majority minority districts in the heavily populated African American areas of the State. Thus, while more Black Democrats would get elected to Congress, as the lines going out from the Big Three are brought back closer to home, in order to create the Majority Minority districts, the natural consequence is less of a diluted effect on the outlying districts and a greater chance that they will be represented by someone living in the local community. I was in the middle of the last redistricting fight and can tell you this was a very tense issue and promises were as to the creation of the Majority Minority Districts if they would just wait, one more time, till the next redistricting, which will be this one. I am sure that the white Democrat machine will pull out all the tricks to maintain its hold on power but the election of the first Black Governor may be enough to actually give the majority minority areas of the State the ability to be represented by a minority neighbor in Congress. I welcome your thoughts on the matter.
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 11:48 AM #2
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You left out Hogan's open claim that he doesn't want or need an NRA rating.

Also, paragraphs are your friend. That was a tough read.
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 11:51 AM #3
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Quote:
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Also, paragraphs are your friend. That was a tough read.
Win!
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 11:54 AM #4
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Vote for the devil, go to Hell. Hogan's a saint in comparison to the other guy...
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 11:55 AM #5
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Quote:
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Vote for the devil, go to Hell. Hogan's a saint in comparison to the other guy...
.....but mah principles!
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 12:39 PM #6
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Vote for the devil, go to Hell. Hogan's a saint in comparison to the other guy...
They're both devils. 1 is just a little more up-front with his intentions than the other.
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 12:50 PM #7
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Hogan is still better that Ben Jealous, by far.
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 12:56 PM #8
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Quote:
Ehrlich asked "What are they going to do, vote for O'Malley? The 2A community did not vote for O'Malley, they just did not vote!
O'Malley turned around and got the "Firearms Safety Act" aka "Assault Weapons Ban" passed.

If you don't vote you will get more anti 2A legislation.
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 01:03 PM #9
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Quote:
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You left out Hogan's open claim that he doesn't want or need an NRA rating.

Also, paragraphs are your friend. That was a tough read.
He copied and pasted it directly from Mike's FB page, if you want to complain to anyone about paragraphs, complain to Mike, not the OP.

Same thing for the NRA claim, take it to Mike, not the OP.
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Old July 22nd, 2018, 01:06 PM #10
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Maryland's rulers are not about to give their black supporters any more representation. They are, and always have been, out and out racists. That's why we have no G&S; it's unwise to arm those you wish to keep in subjugation.

So when redistricting rolls around again, it'll be another case of "Honest, Charlie Brown, I won't pull the ball away this time!" And they know it won't have a negative election impact, because "D" is the key. We just votes for the D, and we gets stuff for free.
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