Is It The Rut Yet?

outrider58 · Aug 13, 2017

I know. It's too early to think about this. Hell, it's still summer and the pools are still open. But, some folks don't have the luxury of scheduling their vacation time a week before they take it. Maybe we can help those folks choose wisely.

Okay. Here's your chance to predict this year's Whitetail rut. For the past couple of years, I've my neck out with a prediction and explain how I arrived at that time frame. Last year, I felt, I nailed it. Not only that, I also predicted the tempo it would follow. Year before that, I failed miserably(at first because I mistakenly looked at the wrong lunar chart

[hint #1]) but later fixed my error.

Aside from altering factors(weather, hunting pressure, etc.), the rut is pretty predictable. So, in a perfect world scenario, I want your predictions on timing, tempo(fast and furious or long and drawn out or somewhere in between) and how you arrived at you conclusion.

Let the discussion begin!

d33rhunt3r · Aug 13, 2017

I'm still seeing tiny spotted fawns that look like they were born a week ago, so I have no clue

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Speed3 · Aug 13, 2017

outrider58 said:
I know. It's too early to think about this. Hell, it's still summer and the pools are still open. But, some folks don't have the luxury of scheduling their vacation time a week before they take it. Maybe we can help those folks choose wisely.

Okay. Here's your chance to predict this year's Whitetail rut. For the past couple of years, I've my neck out with a prediction and explain how I arrived at that time frame. Last year, I felt, I nailed it. Not only that, I also predicted the tempo it would follow. Year before that, I failed miserably(at first because I mistakenly looked at the wrong lunar chart [hint #1]) but later fixed my error.

Aside from altering factors(weather, hunting pressure, etc.), the rut is pretty predictable. So, in a perfect world scenario, I want your predictions on timing, tempo(fast and furious or long and drawn out or somewhere in between) and how you arrived at you conclusion.

Let the discussion begin!

I don't even pretend to have the knowledge to predict the rut , I will wait until you predict and use the that as the bible for this year haha

j_h_smith · Aug 13, 2017

I can't tell ya, but the wife noticed a few trees out back that have some red leaves already. I can't see this the beginning but I usually say about a 4-6 weeks after the first trees start their color change. I guess it's not gonna happen this year.

But if I'm guessing, I'm going to say October 29th at 3:17am for the Hazzard County area.

Melnic · Aug 13, 2017

My only prediction is that there will be an unprecedented number of dead deer on the side of the road this year. It is not a hard thing to predict though.

outrider58 · Aug 13, 2017

j_h_smith said:
I can't tell ya, but the wife noticed a few trees out back that have some red leaves already. I can't see this the beginning but I usually say about a 4-6 weeks after the first trees start their color change. I guess it's not gonna happen this year.

But if I'm guessing, I'm going to say October 29th at 3:17am for the Hazzard County area.

Dogwoods?

Doco Overboard · Aug 13, 2017

November 18 around my way. Jan 20 for the second go round. March 2 if you hunt whitetail with me and I say were in a good spot during the season and 2nd week of October for sika clean on thru north of rt 50.

j_h_smith · Aug 13, 2017

outrider58 said:
Dogwoods?

No, oaks. Strangest thing. They're turning red from the top down.

gtodave · Aug 13, 2017

A bush at the end of my driveway got demolished a couple nights ago. Early sign of fun to come!

GUNSnROTORS · Aug 13, 2017

Thursday, October 19th ... at 3:12 pm

wilcam47 · Aug 13, 2017

difficult to gauge here since the animals are so skiddish. Only way I can tell is seeing the tarsals fired up on game camera pics. Last year for us it was late Nov to early-mid Dec!

danb · Aug 13, 2017

I saw a buck chasing some does in a field by AGC. :whoa:

no kidding and I thought it seemed a little early.

But this thread was started a few hours before, so it must be true!

outrider58 · Aug 14, 2017

wilcam47 said:
difficult to gauge here since the animals are so skiddish. Only way I can tell is seeing the tarsals fired up on game camera pics. Last year for us it was late Nov to early-mid Dec!

The rut was pretty late last year. The "rutting moon" wasn't until 11/14.

I prefer late ruts over early ones. It tends to keep mature bucks active in daylight many more days.

Bucks are triggered by daylight(or the lessening of) through their pineal gland. What that means is, they start their rutting activities about the same time every year. Not so with the does. They rely on the moon to trigger them.

Chris · Aug 14, 2017

Not sure here in Cecil-got couple of does hanging around but also two bucks seen. No real commotion yet. And only a couple road kills so far. With Rt1 splitting a lot of their ground the bodies pile up quick during rut. I love fresh road kill. Chris

Derwood · Aug 14, 2017

Outrider, can you walk us through your procedure/theory for the case of rut prediction? I remember you did this last year and it was very interesting. I also need to pick a couple days to take off sooner rather than later.

I see the full moon is November 4th. So I guess the deer will be more active at night immediately before and after that. I know normally the rut peaks around November 14 in Central Maryland/Virginia. But that's the end of my knowledge.

For others who want to share their predictions--please make it clear in your post where you are located. Since latitude, altitude/climate can have some impact...I think.

aray · Aug 14, 2017

j_h_smith said:
I can't tell ya, but the wife noticed a few trees out back that have some red leaves already. I can't see this the beginning but I usually say about a 4-6 weeks after the first trees start their color change. I guess it's not gonna happen this year.

But if I'm guessing, I'm going to say October 29th at 3:17am for the Hazzard County area.

The cherry tree in our front yard is starting to yellow. Some leaves have already dropped off ... in mid-August! It has been a cooler than normal summer here, on average.

Neot · Aug 14, 2017

I don't have a buck on camera yet this summer but last year around November 6th they started popping up and were caught on trail cam through early January. They seemed especially active between Nov 11th and December 10th, then it was sporadic after that. So since I've only been at this property for a year, I'm going with that.

Inigoes · Aug 14, 2017

Hunters Moon is October 5th
Beaver Moon (aka Rutting Moon) is November 4th

I'll go with the Beaver Moon this year

outrider58 · Aug 14, 2017

Inigoes said:
Hunters Moon is October 5th
Beaver Moon (aka Rutting Moon) is November 4th

I'll go with the Beaver Moon this year

Inigoes · Aug 14, 2017

An interesting article that compares scientific methods and traditional solar/lunar cycles:

http://wiredtohunt.com/2017/05/30/2017-rut-predictions-an-earlier-more-intense-rut-than-last-year/

Is It The Rut Yet?

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