SAF SUES IN MARYLAND OVER HANDGUN PERMIT DENIAL UPDATED 3-5-12

Nobody said:

OK I will answer, no I do not want to bet. Due to the fickleness with the law and lawyers who really knows. All I know is most people on this board were very excited about mcdonald and I, being a realist stated that "tomoorow will be like yesterday even after the decision" I even offered to pay for a permit if within one year of the decision that shall issue is the law of the land.

Now, will you answer the question of what is your guess of a timeline?

NOBODY

Click to expand...

Don't be scared. You said 7-10 years but won't back it with a few bucks? Weak sauce.

As for my time line, I believe we'll see the ordinary citizen having the lawful ability to carry a gun in some fashion outside of his/her home within the next 3.5 years, and possibly much sooner than that.

Nobody said:

OK I will answer, no I do not want to bet. Due to the fickleness with the law and lawyers who really knows. All I know is most people on this board were very excited about mcdonald and I, being a realist stated that "tomoorow will be like yesterday even after the decision" I even offered to pay for a permit if within one year of the decision that shall issue is the law of the land.

Now, will you answer the question of what is your guess of a timeline?

NOBODY

Click to expand...

Sorry nobody knows.

Nobody said:

OK I will answer, no I do not want to bet. Due to the fickleness with the law and lawyers who really knows. All I know is most people on this board were very excited about mcdonald and I, being a realist stated that "tomoorow will be like yesterday even after the decision" I even offered to pay for a permit if within one year of the decision that shall issue is the law of the land.

Now, will you answer the question of what is your guess of a timeline?

NOBODY

Click to expand...

Three years, if we get a cert granted to SCOTUS. If Nordyke makes it there sooner, I'll go under 3.

In a few years we may be facing a very different Court. The 2A may be history before then.

I think that, after Gansler loses Woollard v. Sheridan, he will not appeal because next year the legislature will fix the law and make Maryland Shall-Issue.

OLM-Medic said:

But then what? Even if its ruled in SAF's favor aren't we to expect appeals and such buy MD? Also, the process for changing their current system would take some time as well.

Click to expand...

Assuming a victory at the District Court level, the law would be struck immediately - the SAF complaint requests a permanent injunction against the law and the rationale behind it. That would also preclude creative rule making by MD as it establishes the philosophy of "Shall Issue". So if we win it all, we're talking an immediate effect.

See the recent news stories on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" for an idea of how broadly such a ruling could be felt. In the DADT case, a District Court judge in CA said DADT was illegal and ordered it stopped. This was immediate and the military even yesterday was politely taking applications from openly gay recruits.

Of course, there are two lessons in that case: the 9th Circuit (one level above the District) put the implementation of that case on temporary hold until at least Monday, when they will consider arguments for/against a permanent hold pending the anticipated appeal from the DoD. So now those gay recruits are on hold.

Same could apply here. If we win, the judge will have to determine whether the injunction applies immediately or whether to stay it pending an appeal. This is what happened in the original Heller - the judge said Heller won but delayed the implementation of the injunction until the various appeals exhausted themselves.

Or the judge could make the ruling immediate. In which case MD has to appeal it to Richmond and get them to stop it.

I think a question everybody wants a estimate for is how long will it take before we can carry our guns?

Click to expand...

That's a tough question, but I will say sooner than the ten years some here are suggesting. If the District court decides in our favor (not guaranteed...actually a bit of a long shot) we could see changes at the conclusion of this case in a few months time. Depending on the state of the various cases nationwide and the strength of our standings in other 2A cases at the Circuit Level (Nordyke in the 9th, for instance), Richmond may not grant a stay. That would make it pretty much permanent pending an MD appeal to the Supreme Court.

As a highly simplistic barometer of CCW likelihood in MD, I would say that if Nordyke is ruled strongly in our favor (strict interpretation of gun shows); AND if we win at the District Court here in MD...we'll be putting in applications by the end of 2011. If Palmer (DC carry case) is also ruled in our favor...I'd get your holster sent Fed-Ex Next Day Air and start practicing your draw.

Realistically, Nordyke is going to split the baby and allow the gun shows using intermediate scrutiny. They will dodge the larger question. Even then, an en banc panel will be set up putting into further review/limbo. We're going to win there, it's just not going to be a huge one.

Palmer...no idea what the hell is going on there. That one is seriously overdue and everything is really quiet. The SAF filed a supplemental brief in July citing McDonald and giving the court strong rationale for ruling in our favor. In an odd twist, DC replied with...nothing. Not a word from what I can tell (I checked PACER just now).

DC's failure to respond is really, really odd because even though Heller already applied to DC, I would have expected DC to at least put up a token argument limiting McDonald's "fundamental" finding and dicta on public wear and carry. McDonald was more than "Heller, Incorporated" - it extended the Heller decision into new territory and protection. DC should have responded. Maybe they ran out of cash?

Palmer is probably the most important case "we" have going right now and there is nothing to talk about. It could drop tomorrow...or a year from now.

Worst case scenario: all of these cases go against us and we need to wait for the Supreme Court to intervene. The average time for cases like Heller and McDonald to get decided there has been a little over two years from the first filing. The states are better at creating delays right now, so maybe three on this round.

So assuming the Supreme Court rules the way we want it to, we're talking another 2 1/2 years or so if we lose all levels but win at the final court. And there is the moderate chance that even a win in between could result in a stay until that time anyway.

So worst case is another three years before we get our answer. Likely sooner because Palmer is already more than a year down the road. It only has one more hop to the Supreme Court; is ready for the final decision; and its decision would pretty much apply nationwide as a strong bit of guidance on our issue.

That means Palmer could get a ruling from the Supreme Court by the end of 2011. If the DC Circuit keeps the case in limbo, it's probably June 2012 at the latest. This assumes the loser in Palmer requests - and is granted - certiorari before next summer.

Ethan83 said:

And it's still not exactly easy to get handguns in either Chicago nor DC. My understanding is that Woollard may be decided by the SCOTUS within a year or two, but that doesn't mean that the MDSP is going to suddenly start issuing everybody a permit the very next day. I think these much longer figures are for when we'll actually walk around in public in MD with guns on our hips and permits in our wallets.

Click to expand...

Good points, but remember that Heller and McDonald were simple questions that dealt with only the smallest of issues: owning a gun in your home. They did not deal with the details of implementation.

The current crop of cases are all about the details, including implementation. The Woollard case, Palmer and the like are all directly attacking the rationale of Subjective May-Issue. The specifically spell out the requirements for a permit, as well as the only permitted causes of denial. MD will stretch those categories of "exceptions on the right", but these will be edge cases. Most people here will be fine.

When municipalities drag their feet, there will be a strong case for denial of rights lawsuits and cash awards, including punitive damages. One big class action settlement and it is over.

And as far as edge cases go (petty crimes, age restrictions, emergency powers, etc.): they are also being fed into the system right now. They are already teed up and moving down the path. We won't have to wait two more years for each.

The only issue I have not yet seen a serious case on is the mental health exception to 2A. I guess we'll need to wait on someone getting denied for taking Paxil before that moves on.

These cases need to viewed nationwide as a complete set of moves - not individual issues. If you draw that picture, you can see the SAF and even the NRA worked hard to build a noose (as much as I dislike the analogy, it fits). The courts will draw it shut one bit at a time, but each move will make it tighter than the last. The final steps will choke most of life out of unreasonable gun control forever(ish).

This is what the NAACP and others did in the last great civil rights fights.

Patrick,

Thanks for clarifying!

Ethan83 said:

Go to the range and practice, I guess. Or donate more money to SAF. Maybe start a "Take a Lib to the Range Day" to win more public support for 2A causes?

Click to expand...

Do we have any "Ask me about my empty holster" bumper stickers??

I'd be good for some, and happy to answer any curious folk.

Boondock Saint said:

Don't be scared. You said 7-10 years but won't back it with a few bucks? Weak sauce. .

Click to expand...

There are many variables to that bet, Gansler could loose and MD could roll over, Bob could win and direct the MSP to accept personal protection as " G & S, and many others. The status quo has been for so long here I am pessamistic in my time line. My wish is 10 days not years but I do not have a genie.

I do not bet on things I do not KNOW, my 7-10 is a guess and I pray every day that I am wrong.

NOBODY

I grew up too poor and work too hard for what I get to gamble, unless it in the way of a dinner I probably would have picked up anyway.

Patrick said:

These cases need to viewed nationwide as a complete set of moves - not individual issues. If you draw that picture, you can see the SAF and even the NRA worked hard to build a noose (as much as I dislike the analogy, it fits).

Click to expand...

I think the proper term these days should be old-timey-hangman's-knot. Such things are also no longer even OK at macabre halloween displays, aparently. I mean, I know why, I'm not a fool. Its just that it didn't seem to be an issue 25 years ago when I was a lad decorating the house.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/27/nyregion/27noose.html

You could use the Guillotine analogy. Nobody gets upset about that one yet. Maybe the French.

Patrick, thank you as always for your insight and analysis.

As for me, I'm starting my take a lib. to the range program next week. I'll be taking the Dean of the University I work at to the range. She has always expressed her dislike of guns which is based on her fear of guns. But now that her husband has taken a 2 year contract in FL. and left her and her 19 year old daughter here by themselves for 2 years, she has suddenly taken an interest in learning how to use her husband’s .357 revolver. Since she knew I was a collector and C&R guy, she actually approached me about wanting to go the range and learn to shoot.

jdramsey said:

Patrick, thank you as always for your insight and analysis.

As for me, I'm starting my take a lib. to the range program next week. I'll be taking the Dean of the University I work at to the range. She has always expressed her dislike of guns which is based on her fear of guns. But now that her husband has taken a 2 year contract in FL. and left her and her 19 year old daughter here by themselves for 2 years, she has suddenly taken an interest in learning how to use her husband’s .357 revolver. Since she knew I was a collector and C&R guy, she actually approached me about wanting to go the range and learn to shoot.

Click to expand...

Change 'em one at a time. Not only that, funny how the need arises when someone realizes that it is the quickest, safest, and best way to personal defense.

After all, ninjaing a gun from someone is only move garbage. Can't ninja someone's gun away from 30 feet.

Patrick: Rather than quoting your Palmer insight from above on post 1106...what is taking that case so long? Does that favor our side? I would think that it would...merely from the fact that it takes hardly ANY time to let legislation stand, but to write good, sound precedent setting jurisprudence, it takes time, legal wrangling, historical research, ect.

I know the courts are always tight lipped, but still, that's like iron clad.

fightinbluhen51 said:

We've made No Lawyers - Only Guns & Money Blog

http://onlygunsandmoney.blogspot.com/2010/10/maryland-handgun-carry-permit-review.html

Click to expand...

Hi!

I'm the blogger behind No Lawyers - Only Guns & Money. Thanks for the link and thanks to the original poster of Delegate Smigiel's YouTube video. I hope my posting shines a bit more light on this state board. I can only hope and pray that "shall issue" CCW will come to Maryland in the near future.

John Richardson

jpr9954 said:

Hi!

I'm the blogger behind No Lawyers - Only Guns & Money. Thanks for the link and thanks to the original poster of Delegate Smigiel's YouTube video. I hope my posting shines a bit more light on this state board. I can only hope and pray that "shall issue" CCW will come to Maryland in the near future.

John Richardson

Click to expand...

Hey, NOOOOO problem. You're in my feed burner (fellow blogger and obviously one of the who's who of the blogosphere of guns from SFIH, Mike W., Say Uncle, Breda, ect, ect, ect, ) So why not give you some love here.

Thanks for stoppin' in and say hello.

Judge Henry H. Kennedy has a history of careful jurisprudence and is considered an expert on civil rights matters. He has been reported to go into insane detail at times - far more than some litigants wished/considered required. He has also let some cases sit for a long time, though I hope that does not happen here.

As for political leanings...he's not "that" kind of Kennedy.


Judge Kennedy: Not One Of Teddy's Kin

To give an idea of where he sits, he ordered the US to release a Guantanamo Prisoner on Habeus Corpus challenge, but then also did not chide the CIA for erasing a ton of interrogation tapes that several lawsuits deemed critical.

So basically, I have no idea where he stands based on the semi-cursory review of him I performed. Some will claim he is liberal, but frankly most conservatives claim anyone who rules on civil rights is a liberal, so I give that little to no credence. Also, he is not a rubber-stamp for civil rights complaints - he has turned a fair share away for over-reaching. And a lot of liberal groups were hugely upset at his CIA tape rulings. My impression so far is that he likes the details and is exceptionally thoughtful and introspective of the issues.

There is a big question in my mind when it comes to civil rights and 2A: will traditional civil rights champions now defend our right? This is going to be a good case to watch.

I don't know where he'll land and could hardly hazard a guess without reading much more of his work. But we can be pretty sure of two things: it will be reasoned and detailed; and it will have great sway over other Circuits and District Courts nationwide given the fact he has a strong scholarly reputation and the fact he sits in the DC Circuit (the DC Circuit is considered the more prestigious of the Appeals Courts and is where most of our current Supreme Court Justices came from - it is the "stepping stone" to the big court).

A win here would be huge. So would a loss.

jpr9954 said:

Hi!

I'm the blogger behind No Lawyers - Only Guns & Money. Thanks for the link and thanks to the original poster of Delegate Smigiel's YouTube video. I hope my posting shines a bit more light on this state board. I can only hope and pray that "shall issue" CCW will come to Maryland in the near future.

John Richardson

Click to expand...

Just saw this. We're fans of your work and blog. Thanks for the help.

"There are many variables to that bet, Gansler could loose and MD could roll over, Bob could win and direct the MSP to accept personal protection as " G & S, and many others."

Frankly I don't have that kind of faith in Bob. He's better than OweMalley, and I'll be voting for him since he's not the incumbent, but he did't do much for us last time around.