New York rifle and Pistol case: what's next?

Biggfoot44 · Dec 11, 2021

Notwithstanding the statistical dance over county population averages nationwide vs population of counties where majority of population live , etc , Camo does indirectly lead to a good question about trends of Permit issuance / population .

Needing to get out the door , I'll simplify , and skimp on attributions for now . Dang , I really need to leave now , I' ll come back to this later today .

camo556 · Dec 11, 2021

Kharn said:
If Roberts joins the dissent in NYSRPA II, then we would all need to rush out and buy some fancy BBQ guns for the 4th of July.

Yes. WWH makes me think Roberts has lost (control of?) the conservatives. WWH raises the odds hes in the minority in Dobbs and NYSRPA II as well. If he is in the minority more often, suits me fine.

camo556 · Dec 11, 2021

jcutonilli said:
It is not really possible that most counties issue more than 30K permits because the majority of counties in the US have less than 30K people.

https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html

1710 of 3142 counties (54%) have a population less than 30k

If you are going to correct me at least get it right: Counties in free states dont need to issue permits because of constitutional carry. So yeah, i was wrong. Counties in free states dont issue 30K permits because they are free, constitutional carry.

rambling_one · Dec 11, 2021

press1280 · Dec 11, 2021

camo556 said:
Yes. WWH makes me think Roberts has lost (control of?) the conservatives. WWH raises the odds hes in the minority in Dobbs and NYSRPA II as well. If he is in the minority more often, suits me fine.

I didn't hear a dissenting justice in Roberts in the oral arguments.

I think a 6-3 opinion in NYSRPA looks a whole lot more legit than a 5-4 opinion.

With all the other higher profile cases this term, this one may go somewhat under the radar.

camo556 · Dec 11, 2021

rambling_one said:
WWH?

Whole Womens Health (Texas SB8 case): https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-463_new_8o6b.pdf

camo556 · Dec 11, 2021

press1280 said:
I didn't hear a dissenting justice in Roberts in the oral arguments.

I think a 6-3 opinion in NYSRPA looks a whole lot more legit than a 5-4 opinion.

With all the other higher profile cases this term, this one may go somewhat under the radar.

I heard 6-3 at orals as well, but I could do without the sensitive place dicta Roberts and Barrett were pushing.

rambling_one · Dec 11, 2021

camo556 said:
Whole Womens Health (Texas SB8 case): https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-463_new_8o6b.pdf

Thanks.

Biggfoot44 · Dec 11, 2021

Meanwhile back at projected Carry Permit numbers :

Back in the middle years of the Shall Issue Revolution % of population having Carry Permits in different jurisdictions was looked at , and speculated upon , and a number of factors identified .

Back then , typical Shall Issue States ran 1%-3% of overall population . Hard core gun states were up to 5% . More recently the high end has been far exceeded , but the factors effecting to low to middle range are very relevant to Maryland . Factors include ;

Cost , time involved , hassle of acquiring Permit

Carry laws w/o Permit

Transport laws w/o Permit

Existing level of gun and shooting culture .

Maryland's W&C process ( at least initially ) will remain very onerous , a negative factor .

Maryland is very restrictive w/o Permit , a positive .

While Md gun community can be freverent , we are smaller porportionally than most of our neighbouring states .

Eventually growing numbers w/o shooting or hunting background will come to Carry for pragmatic reasons , but the initial wave will primarily start out with existing shooters .

Biggfoot Prediction -

The initial jump from 30K to 100K will be limited the speed that MSP LD can process them . One way or another the process would have to change to gradually approach 250 K .

delaware_export · Dec 11, 2021

If as you predict, 6-3, do you see Roberts writing a watered down or narrow ruling? Or …. Thomas… and something more reflective of what a right should be? (More expansive, and/or potentially implicating other 2a issues. Mag caps, “reasonable restrictions” on times and places)

And yeah, months of waiting lead to lots of speculation in the mean time..

press1280 said:
I didn't hear a dissenting justice in Roberts in the oral arguments.

I think a 6-3 opinion in NYSRPA looks a whole lot more legit than a 5-4 opinion.

With all the other higher profile cases this term, this one may go somewhat under the radar.

Bertfish · Dec 11, 2021

The media will ensure it doesn't go under the radar

Blood in the streets cause of SCOTUS etc etc

BeoBill · Dec 11, 2021

Biggfoot44 said:
I get Camo's overall point .

But within the universe of the 30K-ish MD W&C , non residents are not discriminated against .

FWIW , within 5 or so years , the number of active W&C has gone from 12K- ish to 30K- ish .

And I suppose the inclusion of TS clearance holders into the "Assumed Risk" category had nothing to do with that...

Texasgrillchef · Dec 11, 2021

camo556 said:
If you are going to correct me at least get it right: Counties in free states dont need to issue permits because of constitutional carry. So yeah, i was wrong. Counties in free states dont issue 30K permits because they are free, constitutional carry.

Well here is something to note as well. Just an FYI.

Even though there are 21 Constitutional carry states, many still continue to issue Permits, despite the fact they are constitutional carry.

Keep in mind some states permits are issued by the state as a whole and not by anyone at the county level.

When looking at the number of a states issued permits, also keep in mind that there are some states that issue Non resident permits on a state level and some on a county level. So if you look at total number issued by a county or a state, be sure to subtract the number of Non-resident permits as well.

I have a Texas resident, issued by the state. Have a washington issued by the county Sheriff. The other 9 state permits that. Have are all Non-resident and issued at state level.

One other thing to keep in mind as well. If you take all the permits issued and add them up together. That number doesn’t give you the total number of distinctive different persons with a permit. As I am I am not the only person in the USA with 2 or more Permits. (I have 11 and more to come after NYSRPA issue their opinion, hopefully)

Texasgrillchef · Dec 11, 2021

Biggfoot44 said:
Meanwhile back at projected Carry Permit numbers :

Back in the middle years of the Shall Issue Revolution % of population having Carry Permits in different jurisdictions was looked at , and speculated upon , and a number of factors identified .

Back then , typical Shall Issue States ran 1%-3% of overall population . Hard core gun states were up to 5% . More recently the high end has been far exceeded , but the factors effecting to low to middle range are very relevant to Maryland . Factors include ;

Cost , time involved , hassle of acquiring Permit

Carry laws w/o Permit

Transport laws w/o Permit

Existing level of gun and shooting culture .

Maryland's W&C process ( at least initially ) will remain very onerous , a negative factor .

Maryland is very restrictive w/o Permit , a positive .

While Md gun community can be freverent , we are smaller porportionally than most of our neighbouring states .

Eventually growing numbers w/o shooting or hunting background will come to Carry for pragmatic reasons , but the initial wave will primarily start out with existing shooters .

Biggfoot Prediction -

The initial jump from 30K to 100K will be limited the speed that MSP LD can process them . One way or another the process would have to change to gradually approach 250 K .

See a previous post I had about permits across the nation.

What you speak of in regards to Maryland residents getting a W&C permit maybe true.

I have and am a certified Maryland W&C Instructor, but sadly don’t have my Maryland W&C permit.

When NYSPRA is done, hopefully I will get mine, as I travel frequently.

I also have 38 (as of today) Texans who will take my course and apply for a MD W&C permit after NYSPRA.

What I predict, and I could be wrong. Is that due to the fact of no reciprocity from MD and a lot of people doing business in multiple states, or having family etc… many Non-residents will apply as well.

Of my 38 future Students, 23 of them are getting because they travel to Maryland on business. The rest either travel for pleasure like I do, or they have family in Maryland that they visit frequently.

So I represent at least 40 Future Non resident applications. (My 38 students, my self, and my wife.)

press1280 · Dec 12, 2021

delaware_export said:
If as you predict, 6-3, do you see Roberts writing a watered down or narrow ruling? Or …. Thomas… and something more reflective of what a right should be? (More expansive, and/or potentially implicating other 2a issues. Mag caps, “reasonable restrictions” on times and places)

And yeah, months of waiting lead to lots of speculation in the mean time..

He may try to get a list of sensitive places expanded but other than Barrett I don't know if the other 4 conservatives will go along (Kavanaugh seemed a definite no). And why would they?
Sensitive places aren't at issue. They can merely say that the current no carry zones in NY are not at issue here and thus not implicated.
The court should only be deciding this case, not the next 2 or 3 cases to come.
Not to mention the lower courts seemed to have a lot of trouble with Heller's dicta, so they shouldn't go for a repeat here.

ngman · Dec 12, 2021

Bertfish said:
The media will ensure it doesn't go under the radar

Blood in the streets cause of SCOTUS etc etc

Yep, they’ll keep pounding the “pack the court” drum all through the mid-terms.

DanGuy48 · Dec 12, 2021

camo556 said:
Whole Womens Health (Texas SB8 case): https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-463_new_8o6b.pdf

Can someone interpret this (above WWH link) into plain English? Are we FUBAR’d now, or just not yet? California is apparently getting ready to do the same against guns.

“(Bloomberg) -- California governor Gavin Newsom has called for a new California law that will effectively bar the manufacture and sale of assault rifles in the state, modeled on Texas’s victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that keeps in place state legislation banning most abortions.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...anti-gun-law-model/ar-AARITW9?ocid=uxbndlbing

calicojack · Dec 12, 2021

DanGuy48 said:
Can someone interpret this into plain English? Are we FUBAR’d now, or just not yet? California is apparently getting ready to do the same against guns.

“(Bloomberg) -- California governor Gavin Newsom has called for a new California law that will effectively bar the manufacture and sale of assault rifles in the state, modeled on Texas’s victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that keeps in place state legislation banning most abortions.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...anti-gun-law-model/ar-AARITW9?ocid=uxbndlbing

Or this is just blowing smoke from the lunatic fringe to calm their base.

camo556 · Dec 12, 2021

DanGuy48 said:
Can someone interpret this into plain English? Are we FUBAR’d now, or just not yet? California is apparently getting ready to do the same against guns.

“(Bloomberg) -- California governor Gavin Newsom has called for a new California law that will effectively bar the manufacture and sale of assault rifles in the state, modeled on Texas’s victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that keeps in place state legislation banning most abortions.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...anti-gun-law-model/ar-AARITW9?ocid=uxbndlbing

As predicted -SB8 can be used as a model to chill other rights. But SB8 also does not work the way people think it does. This is a useful read:

https://reason.com/volokh/2021/12/10/pre-enforcement-constitutional-challenges/

Firearms Policy Coalition: We told you so, and also we will fight it to the end.

https://www.firearmspolicy.org/fpc-...wing-supreme-court-ruling-in-texas-s-b-8-case

DanGuy48 · Dec 12, 2021

“Newsom said that his staff will be working with the Legislature and California Attorney General Rob Bonta to craft the bill to let citizens sue anyone who “manufactures, distributes, or sells an assault weapon or ghost gun kit or parts” in California. They could seek damages of at least $10,000 per violation plus costs and attorney’s fees.

Good luck with that.”

https://jonathanturley.org/2021/12/...ls-for-gun-ban-modeled-on-texas-abortion-law/

New York rifle and Pistol case: what's next?

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