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#1 | |||
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Suburban Commando
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A bit of counter-intel that I hadn't seen here at MD Shooters.
I first saw the news on this "study" last week. Here is a link to the media spin: http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news.../63225267.html Quote:
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/local/63656382.html Quote:
I found a free link to the study here (saves you paying $30 to AJPH): http://works.bepress.com/dennis_culhane/88/ Quote:
Basically, the "conclusions" are total spin. Here are the facts as laid out in the study: 1) FACT: the study's data shows that out of the 677 people in the case group who were shot, 94% of them DID NOT HAVE A GUN. 2) FACT: the "control group" for the study was randomly telephoned Philadelphians who were asked "Were you shot on or around [the exact same time that a case group shooting happened in Philadelphia]? Yes or no?" 3) FACT: the study then matched up the "control" to the "gun possession" subset of the case group to get the "4.5x" number. There are some other details in the study like they matched the case/control by age, race, etc., but that makes no difference in helping support the "conclusion." "Knowing is half the battle." More complicated analysis of the study is found here: http://volokh.com/2009/10/05/guns-di...in-an-assault/ More analysis here: http://www.skatingonstilts.com/skati...it-sounds.html |
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#2 | |||
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Senior Meatbag
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 23,096
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Did the study sample a population of law-abiding permit holders, or does it operate "backwards" by sampling a population of people who were shot, AFTER they were shot?
If the latter, the study is totally meaningless, because it's obvious that criminals with a propensity for violence who carry guns, and who frequently put themselves in high-risk situations where violent encounters are likely, get shot at a far higher rate than law-abiding citizens who carry a gun only for self-defense. |
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#3 | |||
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Midnight Rider
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Studies can show anything you want if you manipulate the data to show your point.
__________________
When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature say, "Come and see." I looked and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hell was following close behind him. They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth. — Revelation 6:7-8 NRA Mid-Range F-Class Master IDPA CDP Marksman |
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#4 | |||
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: MD 40yrs - Smith Mountain Lake, VA since '13
Posts: 11,752
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Figures never lie, but liars sure do figure! Key problems I see with the study: 1) Urban, specifically Philly, 2) No reference to crime rates in the study area, 3) very small sample size - probably not statistically representative, 4) a college/academic study outside of the field of criminology, 5) etc etc etc.
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#5 | |||
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Member
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Gaithersburg
Posts: 479
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Quote:
![]() Totally agree. These studies are completely a FRAUD. Not scientific (meaningless control factors), and completely manipulated to show a certain result. ![]()
__________________
"Vengeance is mine declares the Lord, but I just want to be about the Lord's business!" --- R. Mullins ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ |
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#6 | ||
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 6,464
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amazon.com
How to Lie with Statistics Book. Go. |
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#7 | |||
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Resident MacGyver
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: PAX NAS / CP MCAS
Posts: 6,449
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Quote:
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#8 | |||
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For great Justice
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Quote:
__________________
"Unfortunately, freedom allows sh*theads to get away with stuff. You always know the mark of a coward. A coward hides behind freedom. A brave person stands in front of freedom and defends it for others." -Henry Rollins |
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#9 | |||
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Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Gaithersburg
Posts: 1,752
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Quote:
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"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, and too early to shoot the bastards." ~ Claire Wolfe, 101 Things To Do Until The Revolution |
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#10 | |||
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"Quack Pot Call Honker"
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,237
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More Guns, Less Crime, The Bias Against Guns, GO!
Seriously, this is ridiculous, which can be evidence by just simply doing a study on PA permit holders by themselves. Seems that they probably didn't ask "are you a criminal or have you been convicted of a crime, charged with a crime, arrested, ect" to provide for the fact that criminals have a higher chance of actually being shot. And shot by perhaps, legal gun owners? Yes.
__________________
“It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, who keep on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men”-SAMUEL ADAMS, 1776 ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ |
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