Thread: Postal Concerns
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Old March 27th, 2020, 10:27 PM #93
lazarus lazarus is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2015
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lazarus lazarus is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 5,790
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnC View Post
Good points. If I remember correct Sars2 the Sequel is the 7th member of the human-infecting corona virus and none of them offer lifelong sterilizing immunity (such as measles, small pox, polio etc).

As I mentioned earlier I'm an infectious disease researcher and as new as I am to firearms this is what I do for a living.

These are the ways we combat the virus:
Work on a therapy, akin to tamiflu. There are dozens of clinical trials across the world happening right now. Hydrochloroquine, Azithromycin, Remdesivir are the headliners but there are numerous other compounds being screened. Months to a year away assuming a compound already available shows a benefit. I.e. if hydrochloroquine and Azith show effectiveness these will roll out immediately, as the FDA has already approved them. A novel compound would take years before approval, unless the FDA completely ignores established protocol.

Work on a vaccine, will likely become part of seasonal vaccination for high risk individuals (like the pneumococcal vaccine that elderly need). Unfortunately, this is 18-24 months at best before its rolled out. Additionally, we don't know how long this immunity will last.

We socially distance ourselves and gradually relax quarantine rules. If an outbreak pops up again, we quickly restrict, test and trace individuals. For example, by the fall if Cov2 has tapered off in the US- we get back to work. If this pops up in another country we block access of people and quarantine repatriated people. If it pops up in a state, we go back into quarantine immediately.

We hope that the virus begins to adapt to humans and become less virulent, akin to the 1918 pandemic influenza. Many times when a virus enters a novel population the first round of infections are incredibly lethal (Ebola, Sars1, Avian Influenza, dozens of examples in animals, etc). As the virus mutates, as many do, it becomes less virulent. If you're a virus you want to infect and impact the host the least possible. This allows maximum transmission. An example would be the common cold viruses. How many of us get a cold and we still go to work and spread it? Common cold is in my opinion a very successful virus.

Basically, everyone get ready for a couple more months of quarantine and let's hope our hospitals can keep up. This is going to dramatically transform many aspects of life.
There generally has to be a selective pressure to make it less deadly though. A less virulent mutation allows it to spread more easily for some reason so it doesnít get eradicated, but the mire virulent strain does. And of course there can be multiple circulating strains.

So far SARS-CoV-2 has shown itself plenty easily to spread around and its mutating at about half the rate influenza is. So at best itís likely to be a few years before it would mutate in to something less deadly. But that isnít guaranteed it might be mire deadly. Or it might be more easily transmissible and no less deadly.
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