Postal Concerns

Pinecone · Mar 26, 2020

Threeband said:
********. You have a greater chance of drowning in your own blood two weeks from today than of dying in a car crash. They aren't filling FEMA trailers with dead car crash victims.

Hmm, about 35,000 people die each year in car crashes in the US.

So far, a whopping 1,046 people have died in the US from COVID 19.

So you are wrong. Even if we take that COVID 19 has only been around in the US for 1 month, that works out to about 24,000 deaths per year, IF the rate does not flatten. Which it HAS in China.

You still have a greater chance of dying in a car crash.

And, BTW, FEMA is NOT filling trailers with COVID 19 bodies either.

Jake4U · Mar 26, 2020

Pinecone said:
You are missing the whole point.

The point is, MANY people die every year from the flu. Or car accidents (35,000 - 40,000). Or medical mistakes (over 250,000). Or heart problems (647,000). Or cancer (about 600,000).

But people are panicked over corona virus, because it is new.

So the comment, "it's just the flu" is that people accept that 30,000 to 50,000 die EVERY YEAR, in the US alone, from the flu, but we accept that, because that is how things are. BTW, that means around 100 - 150 PER DAY on average.

And influenza and emphysema are about number 8 on the cause of death in the US.

The flu has never overwhelmed the hospital system. What's happening in NY is a result of people calling ******** on social distancing. The same thing is happening in New Orleans. Why do you assume it can't happen at Hopkins?

https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhurst-hospital-queens.html

Threeband · Mar 26, 2020

FEMA trailers have been brought in to handle the overflow of bodies, yes.

And we are a long way from this thing peaking, even further from it being over

Well, well. Th'event.

JohnC · Mar 26, 2020

Pinecone said:
You are missing the whole point.

The point is, MANY people die every year from the flu. Or car accidents (35,000 - 40,000). Or medical mistakes (over 250,000). Or heart problems (647,000). Or cancer (about 600,000).

But people are panicked over corona virus, because it is new.

So the comment, "it's just the flu" is that people accept that 30,000 to 50,000 die EVERY YEAR, in the US alone, from the flu, but we accept that, because that is how things are. BTW, that means around 100 - 150 PER DAY on average.

And influenza and emphysema are about number 8 on the cause of death in the US.

I think you are actually missing the point. The health care system in the US isn't overwhelmed by the injuries or illnesses you listed there. We don't run out of three months of supplies in one week due to influenza.

However consider these things which are happening right now in many parts of the world:

Thousands of cases that will not end up in death, but they are in the ICU for 2 weeks

Elective surgeries, cancer treatments, emergency treatment that cannot happen because hospitals are overwhelmed

Doctors, nurses and health care professionals get knocked out of service due to infection. Which strains the already overburdened system.

I don't think many people realize what unchecked novel viruses can do to a population. We're exponentially increasing the amount of deaths due to SARS Cov2 in the united states at the moment. March 21st there were 300 deaths. Today there are over 1,000. We expect that deaths will double every few days until this slows down.

Based purely on math, which of course is highly speculative, the united states is on a trajectory to have north of 200,000 deaths with 10-20x as many people as that requiring hospitalization and intensive care. We simply do not have the infrastructure for that. This is if we do absolutely nothing. I don't want to see my parents, coworkers or anyone die for something we could avoid by being a little more careful. It's not panic, it's civic duty.

This is why we practice social distancing, why we work from home and why we avoid exposure.

Editing to put this in here. I want to be wrong about this, I hope in a month or two that the people I've talked to can throw it right back in my face and say "Ha I told you so!" That would mean that the preparedness we all took worked incredibly well.

Jake4U · Mar 26, 2020

JohnC said:
I think you are actually missing the point. The health care system in the US isn't overwhelmed by the injuries or illnesses you listed there. We don't run out of three months of supplies in one week due to influenza.

What he said.

Watch the video out of NYC. Poke around the web and look what's happening in New Orleans. All of this is because a critical mass of buttheads said, "I don't need no social distancing 'cause it's just a flu."

South Korea has pretty much frozen their numbers because they stayed home for awhile. The Chinese say they have, but we know they are full of crap. Because people treated this like no big deal it's going to become a really big deal and likely there's no way to slow down this exponential growth until a whole lot more people die and THEN the buttheads will take it seriously.

lazarus · Mar 26, 2020

Jake4U said:
What he said.

Watch the video out of NYC. Poke around the web and look what's happening in New Orleans. All of this is because a critical mass of buttheads said, "I don't need no social distancing 'cause it's just a flu."

South Korea has pretty much frozen their numbers because they stayed home for awhile. The Chinese say they have, but we know they are full of crap. Because people treated this like no big deal it's going to become a really big deal and likely there's no way to slow down this exponential growth until a whole lot more people die and THEN the buttheads will take it seriously.

Exactly. And car accidents stay flat in death rate. This is going up. Doubling every 3 days. NYC in just the last couple have started to flatten their curve. Which doesn’t mean the death rate is dropping. It just isn’t climbing as fast. They are doubling about every 4 days now.

That means the 200 people who died in the US yesterday from it, which is >70,000 in a year BTW at that rate (a lot more than auto accidents) will be 400 a day in about 3-4 days. That’s 140,000 a year.

In a week from today that’ll be about 800-1000 a day. That’s more than alcohol, car accidents, murders and cancer put together. Note than medical mistakes even.

2 weeks from now it’ll be about 5000 per day. 3 weeks from today we hit about 20,000 a day.

We reach COVID-19 killing more people per day in the US than all causes of death in roughly 15-20 days depending on if the death rate flattens or not.

Exponential math is a B and I think something a lot of people don’t understand. Also your odds of getting infected don’t match how many are diagnosed. Right now many people are not getting tested or even if they do, there is more than a week lag time between them being infectious and being diagnosed in most cases (or longer if they are not being diagnosed until they show up in a hospital).

At its rate of expansion your odds of contracting it double every 3 days. That also doesn’t take long to go from “remote” to “near certainty” if you are not isolating yourself and taking lots of precautions.

lazarus · Mar 26, 2020

Jake4U said:
What he said.

Watch the video out of NYC. Poke around the web and look what's happening in New Orleans. All of this is because a critical mass of buttheads said, "I don't need no social distancing 'cause it's just a flu."

South Korea has pretty much frozen their numbers because they stayed home for awhile. The Chinese say they have, but we know they are full of crap. Because people treated this like no big deal it's going to become a really big deal and likely there's no way to slow down this exponential growth until a whole lot more people die and THEN the buttheads will take it seriously.

To add between the guys I see laughing at it in here, Facebook friends and even family members who aren’t taking it seriously (“a lot of people die from the flu and we aren’t shutting the country down for that”) it’s going to have to get a lot worse before enough people take it seriously to really slow it down. Which is going to get a lot more people killed.

BTW in less than 2 weeks we will likely have more people dead from this than from this years seasonal flu. 2 weeks later more people dead from this than the last 20 years of flu seasons.

Assuming we don’t flatten the curve.

lazarus · Mar 26, 2020

Pinecone said:
Hmm, about 35,000 people die each year in car crashes in the US.

So far, a whopping 1,046 people have died in the US from COVID 19.

So you are wrong. Even if we take that COVID 19 has only been around in the US for 1 month, that works out to about 24,000 deaths per year, IF the rate does not flatten. Which it HAS in China.

You still have a greater chance of dying in a car crash.

And, BTW, FEMA is NOT filling trailers with COVID 19 bodies either.

To address specifically your post, you can’t maths.

Of those >1000 dead it was more than 200 dead just yesterday. 160 the day before. And so on. That’s >80,000 dead in a year based at yesterday’s rate. And it’s doubling every 3 days. 90% of the people who have died from it in the US died in the last week.

In another week, >75% of the people who till have died from it are going to die next week. And so on.

This is an absolutely appropriate quote for this pandemic

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JA1ffd5Ms

Pinecone · Mar 26, 2020

lazarus said:
To address specifically your post, you can’t maths.

Of those >1000 dead it was more than 200 dead just yesterday. 160 the day before. And so on. That’s >80,000 dead in a year based at yesterday’s rate. And it’s doubling every 3 days. 90% of the people who have died from it in the US died in the last week.

In another week, >75% of the people who till have died from it are going to die next week. And so on.

This is an absolutely appropriate quote for this pandemic

And all diseases run their course. They peak and then tail off. You will not have 200 a day for a year.

But you do have about 650,000 heart disease deaths per year, and 599,000 cancer deaths per year.

Viruses typically, over the long term, mutate to be less virulent.

Pinecone · Mar 26, 2020

Threeband said:
FEMA trailers have been brought in to handle the overflow of bodies, yes.

Wrong.

FEMA is NOT involved.

NYC brought in some refrigerated trailers handle the bodies. But that is local, not a national response.

namrelio · Mar 26, 2020

JohnC said:
Editing to put this in here. I want to be wrong about this, I hope in a month or two that the people I've talked to can throw it right back in my face and say "Ha I told you so!" That would mean that the preparedness we all took worked incredibly well.

I'm praying for this.

Threeband · Mar 26, 2020

The NYT said the trailers were provided by FEMA. Maybe they were rented from Penske. So what?

Guess I'll go to a big party, shake lots of hands, get drunk and drive home on the wrong side of the Beltway. Why not? After all, the trailers didn't come from FEMA.

fidelity · Mar 26, 2020

Pinecone said:
And all diseases run their course. They peak and then tail off. You will not have 200 a day for a year.

But you do have about 650,000 heart disease deaths per year, and 599,000 cancer deaths per year.

Viruses typically, over the long term, mutate to be less virulent.

So we should have waited out polio or smallpox instead of developed vaccines for them because they'll eventually be less virulent? They were tailing off on their own? You realize that this often takes hundreds of years. Smallpox killed something 300 million in a century when the world was less crowded. You have a series of poorly informed posts on this topic.

Combloc · Mar 26, 2020

The PV has infected many!

We're having a little cook out at the moment.

6-Pack · Mar 26, 2020

Pinecone said:
Wrong.

FEMA is NOT involved.

NYC brought in some refrigerated trailers handle the bodies. But that is local, not a national response.

I think the bigger issue is that refrigerated trailers are being brought in to handle the bodies, not necessarily the name on the side of said trailers.

Pinecone · Mar 27, 2020

fidelity said:
So we should have waited out polio or smallpox instead of developed vaccines for them because they'll eventually be less virulent? They were tailing off on their own? You realize that this often takes hundreds of years. Smallpox killed something 300 million in a century when the world was less crowded. You have a series of poorly informed posts on this topic.

Who said anything about not developing a vaccine?????

I am just pointing out, that this is nowhere near common things that kill hundreds or thousands of people every day in the US, that people are not panicked about.

I am against the PANIC. Not against taking precautions and working on a vaccine or drug regime to mitigate this virus.

Pinecone · Mar 27, 2020

6-Pack said:
I think the bigger issue is that refrigerated trailers are being brought in to handle the bodies, not necessarily the name on the side of said trailers.

So spreading false news is OK if it occurs on MDS?

But not quite sure why they need them, as only 365 people have died in NYC.

Since more than 100 people die of heart disease every day in NYC (44,000 per year). Or cancer (about 35,000 per year). Top ten causes total about 344 deaths per DAY in NYC.

onedash · Mar 27, 2020

lazarus said:
Exactly. And car accidents stay flat in death rate. This is going up. Doubling every 3 days. NYC in just the last couple have started to flatten their curve. Which doesn’t mean the death rate is dropping. It just isn’t climbing as fast. They are doubling about every 4 days now.

That means the 200 people who died in the US yesterday from it, which is >70,000 in a year BTW at that rate (a lot more than auto accidents) will be 400 a day in about 3-4 days. That’s 140,000 a year.

In a week from today that’ll be about 800-1000 a day. That’s more than alcohol, car accidents, murders and cancer put together. Note than medical mistakes even.

2 weeks from now it’ll be about 5000 per day. 3 weeks from today we hit about 20,000 a day.

We reach COVID-19 killing more people per day in the US than all causes of death in roughly 15-20 days depending on if the death rate flattens or not.

Exponential math is a B and I think something a lot of people don’t understand. Also your odds of getting infected don’t match how many are diagnosed. Right now many people are not getting tested or even if they do, there is more than a week lag time between them being infectious and being diagnosed in most cases (or longer if they are not being diagnosed until they show up in a hospital).

At its rate of expansion your odds of contracting it double every 3 days. That also doesn’t take long to go from “remote” to “near certainty” if you are not isolating yourself and taking lots of precautions.

In 60 days we are all dead? I guess I'd rather die in 12 years from global warming. If we are all dying in 60 days who wants to buy some ammo?

lazarus · Mar 27, 2020

Pinecone said:
And all diseases run their course. They peak and then tail off. You will not have 200 a day for a year.

But you do have about 650,000 heart disease deaths per year, and 599,000 cancer deaths per year.

Viruses typically, over the long term, mutate to be less virulent.

No, they don’t always. Flu doesn’t. It periodically resurfaced as much more deadly.

Smallpox didn’t until we developed a vaccine and eliminated it.

1967 before it was eliminated there were an estimated 15 million world wide infections and 2 million deaths. For a virus that had been with us for at least a thousand years.

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be with us for the long haul.

Smallpox never mutated to be less virulent or deadly.

The estimate by people who’s job this actually is estimate 60-70% of the people in the world will contract this if we do nothing within 1 year.

We are already past 300 yesterday from 200 the day before. We aren’t remotely near a peak. Background infections rates once most people have contracted it would likely remain in the tens of thousands per day with thousands dying per day in the US without treatment.

That’s months after we pass hundreds of thousands dying per day at its peak if it really bad. Even if it is on the lowest end of estimates it’ll be tens of thousands per day dying.

lazarus · Mar 27, 2020

Pinecone said:
So spreading false news is OK if it occurs on MDS?

But not quite sure why they need them, as only 365 people have died in NYC.

Since more than 100 people die of heart disease every day in NYC (44,000 per year). Or cancer (about 35,000 per year). Top ten causes total about 344 deaths per DAY in NYC.

Because I think as a lot of people will repeat, you don’t know how to do math.

It was at 365 yesterday at 5pm. That was after 88 died in a day.

In 3 days it’ll likely be going up by about 200 per day. 3-4 days later 400 a day.

If people don’t actually pull out the stops to slow or break the chain of infections it will continue to go up at an exponential rate until a sufficient number of people have recovered and are immune (supposing immunity is long lasting and we don’t know that it will be. Some viral infections your immune response is weak, just months after the original infection). That’s going to take about 20% of the population having been infected to start making any real dent in the rate of infections.

It’s called been prepared. They know they’ll need a place to put all the bodies in a few days. Most hospital morgues can’t handle 100 bodies.

Most people dying of heart disease aren’t doing it in a hospital. Funeral homes comes and collects the body. Can’t do that with this.

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