How long will the SHTF last?

[teratos]

The problem with a big event is that everyone is affected, and it snowballs. Who is going to fix everything? How will the fixers get parts, feed and protect their families? There is a point beyond which we cannot recover. It’s quite a variable scenario

 

[lazybones]

Not that old just yet myself but I want to be alive to laugh and point fingers at those with gender studies degrees who spent all their money on Teslas, Gucci and imported bottled water.

Laugh all you want. I doubt there is any meaningful preparation anywhere across the spectrum. Maybe some low single-digit percentage for one group but that won't matter. It just means their catastrophe is delayed. Even people who claim to be prepared have family members who aren't or won't buy in.

I do not think owning a gun to shoot your neighbors should be considered preparation. I suspect that is the limit of some good percentage's plans.

 

[BeoBill]

According to this guy, several thousand years...

Suspicious Observers

 

[teratos]

Depends on the scale. At some point, in say an EMP, so much infrastructure is damaged that any areas spared can’t handle the influx of refugees. Everything will collapse. In the event of a Nationwide EMP (IIRC), DOD estimated a 90% mortality rate.

 

[K31]

Laugh all you want. I doubt there is any meaningful preparation anywhere across the spectrum. Maybe some low single-digit percentage for one group but that won't matter.

So your concept is, can't be prepared enough, family members won't be prepared, so give up?

 

[lazybones]

So your concept is, can't be prepared enough, family members won't be prepared, so give up?

Preparation for a natural disaster or short-term social upheaval makes sense. 1 month without outside help. Maybe a little longer. The best preparation for a total infrastructure collapse is probably to flee to another place. Look at how crises in other countries turn into survival situations and then into mass migrations. A massive SHTF here would probably go down the same way.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Wile E Coyote. Super genius.

 

[Ponder_MD]

If the power is off in Multiple States, how long before the die-off starts (starvation, crime, etc)?

Immediately. There are many people at home that require electricity to run medical equipment such as oxygen and dialysis.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Look at how many generations (in your immediate AOR) the populace is removed from abject scarcity. How the community reacts to an extended emergency will have a lot to do with quality of life and or life expectancy following a sustained major event. Cities and city dwellers (urbanites and denizens of downtown) are unlikely to fare well as a whole. Most of them have lived with plenty of stuff almost immediately at hand. (No, this doesn’t include the very poor BUT the supply chain failure will hit them too as will any long term interruption to services they need and or their government money/card$.)

Country folks are much more likely to be able to take newfound scarcity in stride and operate in something approaching a near normal pace. They can food, they know how to barter, they rely on each other as neighbors, they have alternate food and transportation sources, they have fuel tanks in the ground, they hunt and fish and aren’t afraid of hard work (they also have the implements for same). There’s also the notion of faith. Lots more country folk are religious and believe in some tenets of faith while the urbanites are increasingly secular.

Compete drives suburbanites and city folk. Collaborate is a more apt descriptor of country folk. Often they are only a generation or two removed from life marked by scarcity. They recollect much better how to get by in tough times and or do without.

IT’s all about “rub some dirt on it” vs “why can’t I get on your WiFi?”

 

[Boxcab]

Don't underestimate the true city folks who live hand to mouth every day. The ones who fight for life every day. When the city stores empty, they will fan out into the countryside like locust.

The "Uber rider, half-caf latte" crowd will die early, but the others will thrive in the chaos.



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Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

There are certainly some hardened, street smart folks who are imo likely to survive longer because they’ve honed a predatory nature and are familiar with and willing to perpetrate violence

 

[KingClown]

Look at how many generations (in your immediate AOR) the populace is removed from abject scarcity. How the community reacts to an extended emergency will have a lot to do with quality of life and or life expectancy following a sustained major event. Cities and city dwellers (urbanites and denizens of downtown) are unlikely to fare well as a whole. Most of them have lived with plenty of stuff almost immediately at hand. (No, this doesn’t include the very poor BUT the supply chain failure will hit them too as will any long term interruption to services they need and or their government money/card$.)

Country folks are much more likely to be able to take newfound scarcity in stride and operate in something approaching a near normal pace. They can food, they know how to barter, they rely on each other as neighbors, they have alternate food and transportation sources, they have fuel tanks in the ground, they hunt and fish and aren’t afraid of hard work (they also have the implements for same). There’s also the notion of faith. Lots more country folk are religious and believe in some tenets of faith while the urbanites are increasingly secular.

Compete drives suburbanites and city folk. Collaborate is a more apt descriptor of country folk. Often they are only a generation or two removed from life marked by scarcity. They recollect much better how to get by in tough times and or do without.

IT’s all about “rub some dirt on it” vs “why can’t I get on your WiFi?”

This I agree whole heartedly but I am BIAS I grew up in Baltimore and got out when I was 21. I live back in the woods now and have been preparing for a long time to live off grid. To try to come steal from me there is one way in and out thats it unless your trek for a few miles through the woods on very unforgiving terrain and manage to get through the other neighbors first.
I have generators, solar panels, and am about to install a battery back up. I have to have a well pump I cant convert to a manual pump my well is to deep something like 400 feet. So I have taken the time to insure I can run that for atleast a few years.
Bartering is planned and should go good especially if I can make a deal with a farmer or two for lots of corn.
I just bought a freeze dryer to freeze dry food and I have a rediculous amount of food canned as well and also have a fair amount of dehydrated good.
I have taught myself metal work and am relearning wood work. I can do plumbing and electrical work. All my hobbies seem to revolve around being able to stay relativly comfortable in a grid down or SHTF scenario.
Lots of people around me are the same.
When I was in baltimore everyones plan was to have guns and steal what they need from weaker people. It wasnt a ban together and use everyones strengths for the good og the community. Even back then I realized you can only steal what you need for so long and every time you try to steal your life is on the line. So you only live as long as your luck holds out.
In the country people are the opposite. Everyone works together to take advantage of peoples strengths and the community comes together. Any other way will be hard to survive.

 

[Blacksmith101]

This I agree whole heartedly but I am BIAS I grew up in Baltimore and got out when I was 21. I live back in the woods now and have been preparing for a long time to live off grid. To try to come steal from me there is one way in and out thats it unless your trek for a few miles through the woods on very unforgiving terrain and manage to get through the other neighbors first.
I have generators, solar panels, and am about to install a battery back up. I have to have a well pump I cant convert to a manual pump my well is to deep something like 400 feet. So I have taken the time to insure I can run that for atleast a few years.
Bartering is planned and should go good especially if I can make a deal with a farmer or two for lots of corn.
I just bought a freeze dryer to freeze dry food and I have a rediculous amount of food canned as well and also have a fair amount of dehydrated good.
I have taught myself metal work and am relearning wood work. I can do plumbing and electrical work. All my hobbies seem to revolve around being able to stay relativly comfortable in a grid down or SHTF scenario.
Lots of people around me are the same.
When I was in baltimore everyones plan was to have guns and steal what they need from weaker people. It wasnt a ban together and use everyones strengths for the good og the community. Even back then I realized you can only steal what you need for so long and every time you try to steal your life is on the line. So you only live as long as your luck holds out.
In the country people are the opposite. Everyone works together to take advantage of peoples strengths and the community comes together. Any other way will be hard to survive.

And most are well armed and know how to use them (and that includes everyone over the age of 5 or 10) and working together also includes for defense. The "locusts" will quickly find roads blocked and choke points guarded.

 

[KingClown]

And most are well armed and know how to use them (and that includes everyone over the age of 5 or 10) and working together also includes for defense. The "locusts" will quickly find roads blocked and choke points guarded.

They absolutly do everyone around here owns many firearms and most have many off the books firearms too. Everyone knows how to shoot and everyone around here practices pretty regularly. If you make it back and thats a big if that doesnt mean you are into the clear. Just as the kids would say you are at the final boss. The non country folk have no idea what they would be walking into.
However this is also a reason for machine guns. They would make pretty quick work of a 50 person gang coming. But we can start picking them off far enough away that even with bolt actions a couple of people would probably be able to take care of it without to much fuss.
This is one of the reasons I left the city and went to the country.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Know your terrain and the larger picture, geography.

Home field advantage is a thing.

 

[gamer_jim]

For me? About 3 months before my blood pressure medication runs out.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

For me? About 3 months before my blood pressure medication runs out.

Hey Jim…there’s lots of ways to skin that cat. Think creatively.

A good doc will write you a scrip for a years worth. Your insurer might not pay but there’s all kinds of options like GoodRx.

Cut your pills in half. That doubles the time.

Your caloric intake will be reduced thus less weight to carry thus likely an improvement in bodily function…

Will to live can and will drive creativity.

(if the “lights go out” being quick(est) to get to your closest pharmacy isn’t a bad option either…)

 

[bibitor]

Know your terrain and the larger picture, geography.

Home field advantage is a thing.

Which is a great reason to compile an area study, even if you have lived in the same place for 30 years. Review it at least once a year and make updates. Have paper maps on hand for your area and surrounding communities, both road and topographic. USGS TopoBuilder is a great tool that allows you to overlay a wide selection of layers including satellite imagery. In the era of GPS too many people have no concept of the direction or terrain they travel through on a routine basis.

 

[MaxVO2]

For me? About 3 months before my blood pressure medication runs out.

*****Probably even less for folks with the diabeetus, or depression, or who require anti-anxiety meds, or those with asthma or COPD, etc..

Lots of people will just die from stress induced heart attacks the first time they have to do more than watch TV, or drive to work, etc.. Sitting in a cubicle, or watching TV, or driving to and from the buffet restaurant doesn't exactly prepare most folks for a SHTF situation.

There will be a lot fewer people (living) around if civilization breaks down. Most of us aren't really cut out for wilderness or rough/spartan living anymore. Guns and ammo won't help you much if you can barely walk or have a bad toothache from periodontal disease/gingivitis from not engaging in proper oral hygiene after meals including brushing with a fluoride dentrifice and flossing daily, plus perhaps using an oral rinse to help prevent plaque buildup. Also, if you chew gum, to make sure it is a sugarless gum as 3 out of 5 dentists recommend (the other two are probably sellouts to the candy conglomerate..)

Dumb relatively simple health stuff will take most people out if SHTF. Probably best to keep our civilization going as long as possible so we can just die wearing out our dentures in some nursing home, or get snuffed out by some hot Victoria Secret model just smothering us, or even by misadventure lying face down in some dudes pool after too many brats and beer at a BBQ party.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

On a hugely serious note…

I was in the ABC (likker) store just after the bulk of Covid.
struck up a conversation with the mgr.

said I noticed they stayed open when almost everyone else was closed

mgr said the state medical folks estimated no more than a week after closing (if they’d taken that route), they’d be broken into a looted to the floor

alcoholism is much more prevalent than most anybody suspects

self medication ramps up during emergencies and disasters

so meds (pharmaceuticals) can be really important but don’t forget self medication for non traditional (undiagnosed) issues

thank goodness for stills