Correlation Does Not Equal Causation

Minuteman · Sep 14, 2014

This is the counter argument to the belief that America has a higher homicide rate than any other country because it has more guns.

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/20...n-facts-correlation-does-not-equal-causation/

http://politics.stackexchange.com/q...e-vs-homicide-rates-correlation-and-causation

Wiki:

863px-Map_of_world_by_intentional_homicide_rate%2C_2012.svg.png

Murder rate per 100,000 inhabitants in 2012.
0–1 Lightest blue
1–2
2–5
5–10
10–20
>20 Darkest blue

Schipperke · Sep 14, 2014

Minuteman said:
This is the counter argument to the belief that America has a higher homicide rate than any other country because it has more guns.

Big problem with that data, the way they count guns. Take my community, an example of 160 homes, that is heavily leftist anti gun. I know about four guys here that would bring the average ownership to 100% for the community. Mind you, out of 160 homes, we are the right wingers here :lol2:

, way out numbered. Many countries that do allow gun ownership, many, many fewer gun owners there own more than one gun. I have read the about 1/3 of homes in the USA has a gun, so counting multiple guns in individual homes then spreading it out as some kind of average of total gun ownership is bogus.

Pinecone · Sep 15, 2014

And having been to some of the countries that they show as having very low per capita gun ownership, just walking around shows those numbers to be bogus.

JohnnyE · Sep 15, 2014

We are so used to seeing data for the number of firearms murders per 100, or 1,000, or so citizens. I would be interested to see data that discloses the number of firearms murders per firearm. How well behaved are all of the firearms in the US?

MacGuns · Sep 15, 2014

WTF with the murder rate in ~~Iceland~~ Greenland with darkest blue. I would have never expected that.

[edit] found the answer: Murder rates are done "per 100,000" of the population.

But the whole population of Greenland is only 56000. So if there were only one murder in the whole country that one would give it a "murder rate" of 2 (which is higher than "the rate" of most west european countries).

Bullfrog · Sep 15, 2014

MacMoov said:
WTF with the murder rate in Iceland with darkest blue. I would have never expected that.

Actually, i believe you are referring to Greenland. Iceland would be the much smaller island to the SE of it, in very light blue.

Still, valid point... don't know what is up with the rate for Greenland being that high.

Schipperke · Sep 15, 2014

MacMoov said:
WTF with the murder rate in ~~Iceland~~ Greenland with darkest blue. I would have never expected that.

[edit] found the answer: Murder rates are done "per 100,000" of the population.

But the whole population of Greenland is only 56000. So if there were only one murder in the whole country that one would give it a "murder rate" of 2 (which is higher than "the rate" of most west european countries).

Excellent point, and it is in stride with my earlier claim as well as another who suggests more people carry or own guns in other places. Example, take the USA again. If you have a universe of 1000 people and 300 are gun owners, BUT the average gun owner lets say owned 3 guns, that drives the first map statistic to 90 per 100. Take a country where 400 of the 1000 people own guns, but the average is 1.3 guns per gun owner, then that country lands near the 50 per 100 but you have 25% more gun owners. We are a wealthy country and I need not testify that most members of this group own more than one firearm. My BIL owns over 50 , and I'm sure plenty here really skew the averages too. We have the same statistics on owning autos. Two (or more) cars to a family in the USA is a dream to many others in the world.

john_bud · Sep 15, 2014

And we have much higher deaths in hospitals than countries that have meager healthcare. Do hospitals cause death? :sad20:

Politicians understand correct use of statistics as well as lobotomized monkeys understand quantum chromodynamics or the 11 dimensional math of string theory.

Afrikeber · Sep 16, 2014

john_bud said:
And we have much higher deaths in hospitals than countries that have meager healthcare. Do hospitals cause death?

Politicians understand correct use of statistics as well as lobotomized monkeys understand quantum chromodynamics or the 11 dimensional math of string theory.

Manipulation of data to prove one's point to a population of citizens who do not and or care not to use their own logic like everyone in this thread just did is why we are in deep do do.

john_bud · Sep 16, 2014

I keep forgetting that when asked, 99% of respondents affirm they are "above average".

Pushrod · Sep 16, 2014

Depends on how the question was asked to garner the data. If it is a survey that asked only if that person owned a firearm, then the data would reflect real world numbers of death per firearm. If the question asked a person how many firearms they owned, then the numbers would be skewed.

Schipperke · Sep 16, 2014

Pushrod said:
Depends on how the question was asked to garner the data. If it is a survey that asked only if that person owned a firearm, then the data would reflect real world numbers of death per firearm. If the question asked a person how many firearms they owned, then the numbers would be skewed.

There is no question. Data on map reads "Average Firearms per 100 people" . They are just taking number of firearms supposedly in each country and dividing it by population. The USA falls in the top due to multiple guns owned per household that chooses to own firearms;

In 2012, the share of American households with guns was 34 percent, according to survey results released on Thursday. Researchers said the difference compared with 2010, when the rate was 32 percent, was not statistically significant.

Extrapolate the above 34% even further, it is "households" not individuals.

The post commenting on Greenland was good enough to show this is kind of a strange exercise. If this is suppose to show that the number of guns is no correlation to murder rate , my daughter has a better answer. My nine year old said in class, people kill people, guns don't kill people.

Reflect on the 34% of households that own firearms in the USA. Take that and lets really ponder how many of that number are so doggedly 2A minded. This is why when the gun grabbing referendums start, 2A people are greatly outnumbered and our only go to is our rights granted by the founders and trying to not let them get too crushed. Look how they took the guns in Australia. I wouldn't paint Australia as a "*****" country, but when you are fighting a majority who have no interest in owning a firearm, it is no issue to them, and they think taking guns away helps.

Minuteman · Sep 9, 2016

Bumped for another thread about the most dangerous places in Maryland.

Biggfoot44 · Sep 11, 2016

Further hummm. Household with 5 people, 4 of them individual gunowners. Which way dors that skew things ?

Correlation Does Not Equal Causation

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