well it was nice while it lasted RIP 5.45

Dan44 said:

In the past East German, Polish and Bulgarian 5.45x39 have been imported here.

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Doesn't matter. It is built to the same exact spec as 7n6 and thus banned.

Pretoria78 said:

I'd love to see Polish and Bulgarian commercial 5.45x39mm imported.

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Never going to happen. They are in NATO now and have divested themselves of their 5.45 as well as production of it. I don't see themselves going for essentially a niche round in this country when 5.56 is not only more popular here but widely available. Hate to say it but it is what it is. This is 5.56 country.

BLACKTALON said:

its all 7n6 or above and Red Army standard is made in Romania

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Nope Ukraine. Says so on the packaging.



Romania only makes 7.62x39 for RAS and I predict the ONLY source for cheap steel cased ammo in the future since I don't see Russia backing down and the Ukraine will be re-arming themselves since they sold off their surplus to us. Bosnia, Bulgaria, and Serbia only make brass cased ammo that costs just as much as domestic production AKA expensive.

Our government will go for low hanging fruit AKA us gun owners since he couldn't get his way after Sandy Hook. We former Combloc lovers are a minority in the gun community so it is easy for us to be set up as the whipping boys. They will say we have "alternatives."

I am not as negative on Ukraine being overrun by the Russians. Less than 20% of Ukraine proper is Russian sympathetic and the other 80% would likely resist any effort by Russia to move beyond Crimea. Yes, Putin could ultimately conquer them, but it would be messy and probably create more trouble for him than it is worth. He's already gotten what he wants - going further would be strategically stupid - and the guy is no idiot.

I do think that there is some risk that the commercial stuff may suffer short term disruptions as plants get repurposed for domestic production in the near term. But the other thing you have to focus on is the fact that the Ukrainian economy is in the toilet. The ability to sell 5.45 to America for hard currency is not something they will give up unless absolutely necessary. I don't see the US banning commercial imports of 5.45 from Ukraine when it is one of the only viable exports that country has and we are trying to prop them up.

At worst, I think you are going to see a bit of a price spike and some availability issues this summer on commercial 5.45, but those disruptions should be modest/short term. I really don't see this as the end for 5.45. There is a pretty good chance that we don't even see any commercial disruption at all - if this thing calms down in a month or so.

It is also entirely possible that Ukraine is still sitting on so much 7N6 that they aren't even going to focus their limited re-arming dollars on making more ammo. Again, that means the commercial production is getting exported so they can make money to buy the stuff they do need.

So I'm making sure I have enough to shoot through the end of this year, without invading my existing, modest stock of 7N6. But that is as far as I'm going in terms of stockpiling. I can't really afford to do much more than that anyway, but I'm not freaking out about it.

Right now, I'm looking forward to a non-corrosive summer and hoping for the best. I am certainly not going to max out my credit card to buy piles of commercial 5.45 at 25 cents a round.

This blows. I have 1 and 1/4 tins of surplus ammo left in inventory.

I think I will save the unopened tin, and like AlpineDude, look forward to a non-corrosive summer.

Hopefully this blows over. It isn't the WORST thing that can happen. the ammo is still out there and available. Its just not as dirt cheap anymore.

I haven't been watching the prices on this lately, has the non-corrosive stuff started bumping up in price anything significantly? Would it be worth investing in an "insurance tin" just in case?

if you don't have any tins on the way already, i would recommend getting SOMETHING to set aside for either a rainy-day investment fund or zombie apocalypse emergency supply. sooner rather than later.

Classic just got some, the last of it and are taking orders if you guys care

armed ferret said:

if you don't have any tins on the way already, i would recommend getting SOMETHING to set aside for either a rainy-day investment fund or zombie apocalypse emergency supply. sooner rather than later.

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The UPS man just dropped off two crates. $.20 a round with shipping.

bkuether said:

This blows. I have 1 and 1/4 tins of surplus ammo left in inventory.

I think I will save the unopened tin, and like AlpineDude, look forward to a non-corrosive summer.

Hopefully this blows over. It isn't the WORST thing that can happen. the ammo is still out there and available. Its just not as dirt cheap anymore.

I haven't been watching the prices on this lately, has the non-corrosive stuff started bumping up in price anything significantly? Would it be worth investing in an "insurance tin" just in case?

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Welcome to 2007. Once S&W came out with the 5.45 uppers it was all over.

armed ferret said:

if you don't have any tins on the way already, i would recommend getting SOMETHING to set aside for either a rainy-day investment fund or zombie apocalypse emergency supply. sooner rather than later.

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I just picked up a fourth tin before it dries up. Hope this blows over

aquaman said:

Welcome to 2007. Once S&W came out with the 5.45 uppers it was all over.

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Nice theory, btu S&W dumped those uppers because they sold horribly. The real cut-off was the post-Newtown panic that drove the prices from 9c-12c to 16c-19c.

I took a delivery this week too. Some Wolf 5.45 and Golden Tiger in 7.62. The 7N6 I have stays sealed up in the spam cans and gets put on the shelf for a rainy day.

This is going to be my first experience with commercial 5.45. I am looking forward to easier cleaning and I assume the performance is going to be roughly similar? I bought the Wolf because it was still relatively cheap and available. For those of you with more experience shooting commercial, what 5.45 do you like best? Are there any stand-out performers?

AlpineDude67 said:

For those of you with more experience shooting commercial, what 5.45 do you like best? Are there any stand-out performers?

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I once had 10 hits in a row on a 2 MOA steel target at 200 yards with a Saiga 5.45 and Silver Bear 60grain. I consider that pretty good for non-match ammo.

-Jim

erwos said:

Nice theory, btu S&W dumped those uppers because they sold horribly. The real cut-off was the post-Newtown panic that drove the prices from 9c-12c to 16c-19c.

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I belive when Bill Alexander came out with the 21 Ghengis, it was like $79.99 per tin. He couldn't sell them back then and gave up.

Kingjamez said:

I once had 10 hits in a row on a 2 MOA steel target at 200 yards with a Saiga 5.45 and Silver Bear 60grain. I consider that pretty good for non-match ammo.

-Jim

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My '74 sidefolder does consistent 20-25 hits per mag on an (approximately) 12"x14" IPSC-style steel silhouette at 300 with surplus.

atblis said:

I belive when Bill Alexander came out with the 21 Ghengis, it was like $79.99 per tin. He couldn't sell them back then and gave up.

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Yeah, the "everyone's got a 5.45x39 AR now" theory doesn't hold up very well. Way more likely is that the exporter and/or importers are hiking prices because they're tracking the cost of 5.56x45 ammo.

erwos said:

Yeah, the "everyone's got a 5.45x39 AR now" theory doesn't hold up very well. Way more likely is that the exporter and/or importers are hiking prices because they're tracking the cost of 5.56x45 ammo.

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7n6 used to be 79.99/tin and most American shooters didn't know the AK-74 even existed. I really think it was the AR uppers that exposed the majority of the black rifle shooters to the platform.

"Officially Banned"

http://www.atf.gov/press/releases/2...and-classification-7n6-545x39-ammunition.html

Wouldn't that notice still imply that Bulgarian 7N6 is GTG?

IMHO, that's like the thinnest of pretexts to ban 7N6, too... weren't there only like three of those pistols imported for evaluation? Congress needs to step in and revise the ban to not include rifle calibers. *sigh*

erwos said:

Wouldn't that notice still imply that Bulgarian 7N6 is GTG?

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Nope...
From http://www.thebangswitch.com/bye-bye-7n6/

7N6 was not an issue as long as the BATFE didn’t catch wind of a 5.45×39 handgun on the U.S. market. Until one did appear, 7N6 surplus could flow freely from Russia, Ukraine and other sources. However, it would only be a matter of time before someone got the bright idea to produce a 5.45×39 pistol domestically or someone applied for a Form 6 to import one.

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Just bought another tin from Dan's.... Thanks for the info!

How does that quote contradict what I wrote? The BATFE letter specifies "Russian-made" 7N6, not "Bulgarian-made" 7N6.

I guess I'm pretty blah about all this. Commercial 5.45x39 is still less than 5.56x45. The worst case scenario is that I'd take a hit on my AK (cheap and not an SBR) and my AR upper (which wasn't very expensive either).

And, upside, maybe this will finally be the thing that makes the NRA actually advocate to fix the AP ammo ban to stop hitting rifle calibers. I want my cheap 7.62x39 back, too.