Ammunition shortages.. the long view

HokieKev · Feb 6, 2015

I find it interesting that I am getting e-mail/advertisements left and right for 9mm and 5.56 and it seem like the price if really dropping, but when I check gunbot for my two favorite brands of 22lr (mini mag and wolf) they are mostly unavailable.

Some of these companies need to re-balance their production - they are missing a market opportunity.

ras_oscar · Feb 6, 2015

I suspect that worldwide there is a bigger market for centerfire cartridges than rimfire, and as a result fewer production facilities. Anybody want to hazard a guess at per round cost to produce? I'm sure the equipment to spin the cartriges to apply primer compound ain't cheap.

erwos · Feb 6, 2015

Second Amendment said:
Short answer to the most recent one? SB281.

SB281 didn't do anything in terms of shortages. At that point in time, it was still post-Sandy-Hook panic buying. The only real problem that SB281 caused in MD was making it harder to get a transfer on a regulated firearm. The market in MD is simply not large enough to shift national pricing or demand.

The real trigger to panic buying is a perceived shift in the legislative ability (but not necessarily will) to pass a gun ban of some sort. Thus, Hilary alone wouldn't be enough to trigger a serious one, but the GOP losing control of both chambers combined with that probably would.

Similarly, a mass-casualty event is often perceived as eroding legislative will to blocking gun control, so those can generate some spikes. Obviously, the severity of the event is key in how big the effect will be - I really can't imagine anything worse than SH, so that might be a good worst-case baseline.

Personally, the best advice I can give to surviving an ammo shortage is to make sure you:
1. Keep a good stock of ammo at all times. I try to keep a thousand rounds minimum of each caliber, plus whatever's loaded in mags. I would seriously consider stocking 22lr deep, up to 10k rounds.
2. Make sure you've got a gun in a Russian caliber. 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and even 9x18 did much better than the standard American calibers in the last shortage.
3. Consider reloading, but realize that powder and primers vanish shortly after loaded ammo. You can't legally stock powder very deep in MD, but having a lot of the other components on hand probably won't hurt.
4. Think about how you shoot. While I love to rapid-fire 22lr as much as the next guy, I tended to switch to calibers that were more available, even if it meant I needed to conserve a bit on the range. Ammo shortages focus the mind, and can be good for practicing long range, low volume shooting... or even forcing you to zero and upgrade the stuff you've got.

erwos · Feb 6, 2015

ras_oscar said:
I suspect that worldwide there is a bigger market for centerfire caretriges than rimfire, and as a result fewer production facilities. Anybody want to hazard a guess at per round cost to produce? I'm sure the equipment to spin the cartriges to appl y primer compound ain't cheap.

This is pretty much the problem. There are only like four rimfire plants in the USA, and no one's going to build more if rimfire is dirt cheap low margin product.

pbharvey · Feb 6, 2015

I still have ammo from the 1994 assault weapon ban and Y2K. I suspect my Sandy Hook ammo will be shot by my yet-to-be-born grand kids.
I do sleep pretty well though.

Stack it deep I say.

Second Amendment · Feb 6, 2015

erwos said:
SB281 didn't do anything in terms of shortages. At that point in time, it was still post-Sandy-Hook panic buying. The only real problem that SB281 caused in MD was making it harder to get a transfer on a regulated firearm. The market in MD is simply not large enough to shift national pricing or demand.

The real trigger to panic buying is a perceived shift in the legislative ability (but not necessarily will) to pass a gun ban of some sort. Thus, Hilary alone wouldn't be enough to trigger a serious one, but the GOP losing control of both chambers combined with that probably would.

Similarly, a mass-casualty event is often perceived as eroding legislative will to blocking gun control, so those can generate some spikes. Obviously, the severity of the event is key in how big the effect will be - I really can't imagine anything worse than SH, so that might be a good worst-case baseline.

Personally, the best advice I can give to surviving an ammo shortage is to make sure you:
1. Keep a good stock of ammo at all times. I try to keep a thousand rounds minimum of each caliber, plus whatever's loaded in mags. I would seriously consider stocking 22lr deep, up to 10k rounds.
2. Make sure you've got a gun in a Russian caliber. 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and even 9x18 did much better than the standard American calibers in the last shortage.
3. Consider reloading, but realize that powder and primers vanish shortly after loaded ammo. You can't legally stock powder very deep in MD, but having a lot of the other components on hand probably won't hurt.
4. Think about how you shoot. While I love to rapid-fire 22lr as much as the next guy, I tended to switch to calibers that were more available, even if it meant I needed to conserve a bit on the range. Ammo shortages focus the mind, and can be good for practicing long range, low volume shooting... or even forcing you to zero and upgrade the stuff you've got.

SB281 was part of the cause of the ammo shortage. You seem to have agreed with me in your statement above.

erwos · Feb 6, 2015

Second Amendment said:
SB281 was part of the cause of the ammo shortage. You seem to have agreed with me in your statement above.

No, I meant at the federal level. State level shifts are just not big enough to affect the national market. The problems with getting ammo were acute way before SB281 was submitted.

Traveler · Feb 6, 2015

Many suspected Obama would push for more gun and ammo control when he won the second election. He had already lost the house, then he lost the senate.

Scott7891 · Feb 7, 2015

erwos said:
SB281 didn't do anything in terms of shortages. At that point in time, it was still post-Sandy-Hook panic buying. The only real problem that SB281 caused in MD was making it harder to get a transfer on a regulated firearm. The market in MD is simply not large enough to shift national pricing or demand.

The real trigger to panic buying is a perceived shift in the legislative ability (but not necessarily will) to pass a gun ban of some sort. Thus, Hilary alone wouldn't be enough to trigger a serious one, but the GOP losing control of both chambers combined with that probably would.

Similarly, a mass-casualty event is often perceived as eroding legislative will to blocking gun control, so those can generate some spikes. Obviously, the severity of the event is key in how big the effect will be - I really can't imagine anything worse than SH, so that might be a good worst-case baseline.

Personally, the best advice I can give to surviving an ammo shortage is to make sure you:
1. Keep a good stock of ammo at all times. I try to keep a thousand rounds minimum of each caliber, plus whatever's loaded in mags. I would seriously consider stocking 22lr deep, up to 10k rounds.
2. Make sure you've got a gun in a Russian caliber. 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and even 9x18 did much better than the standard American calibers in the last shortage.
3. Consider reloading, but realize that powder and primers vanish shortly after loaded ammo. You can't legally stock powder very deep in MD, but having a lot of the other components on hand probably won't hurt.
4. Think about how you shoot. While I love to rapid-fire 22lr as much as the next guy, I tended to switch to calibers that were more available, even if it meant I needed to conserve a bit on the range. Ammo shortages focus the mind, and can be good for practicing long range, low volume shooting... or even forcing you to zero and upgrade the stuff you've got.

+1, excellent post.

That is why I see people consolidating to a few calibers as very shortsighted. What happens when those calibers you consolidated to become expensive or hard to find?

You say, "Well I stockpiled enough so I can weather the storm." Really? So you have a schedule down to a T to shoot x amount over y amount of time while taking into account other factors like for example folks coming to visit and shooting? Only shooting x gun on y day for z time? Nevermind the fact these "storms" are unpredictable in how long they take to recover. Remember Sandy Hook came out of nowhere which would have really screwed things up in the long run if Congress was not stopped.

Anything can happen at any time for prices to skyrocket again so buy and stockpile while you can and in various calibers to keep your basis covered.

Jimbob2.0 · Feb 7, 2015

By modestly and frequently and you will ride out any shortage.

K.C.Dean · Feb 7, 2015

I am in De Moines Iowa and went to sporting goods store Scheels. They had everything but 22lr. :sad20:

PgRefugee · Feb 7, 2015

Took my wife and three friends to Dicks sporting goods in Waldorf when they were selling 1400 rd .22 lr bullet buckets for $60. They didn't need them, so I kindly took them off of their hands

. I'm a philanthropist at heart.

Jimmmy1111 · Feb 7, 2015

Buy it cheap and stack it deep

protegeV · Feb 7, 2015

PgRefugee said:
Took my wife and three friends to Dicks sporting goods in Waldorf when they were selling 1400 rd .22 lr bullet buckets for $60. They didn't need them, so I kindly took them off of their hands . I'm a philanthropist at heart.

plinkerton · Feb 7, 2015

erwos said:
3. Consider reloading, but realize that powder and primers vanish shortly after loaded ammo. You can't legally stock powder very deep in MD, but having a lot of the other components on hand probably won't hurt.

Stocking powder is all in how you store it. There is no limit I know of storing powder in lead capped brass storage cases.

Blacksmith101 · Feb 8, 2015

Sandy Hook was in December of 2012. I remember in June of 2013 telling people they should back order .22 RF from the CMP, they were still taking orders. People told me no the shortage will soon be over. I said the same thing in March of 2014 and people said don't worry the shortage will soon be over. I got the case (5,000 rounds) ordered in June of '13 in October of 2014 and people are still telling me the shortage will soon be over.

After Obummer got a second term some reloading components got scarce, namely bullets, so I decided to add bullet making to my skill set. I want to be able to cast bullets for every caliber I shoot if needed. You can also re-manufacture your spent primers if necessary (stock some toy gun caps they work).

I am really glad the shortage will soon be over!

Minuteman · Feb 9, 2015

Rule of thumb...

Blacksmith101 said:
Sandy Hook was in December of 2012. I remember in June of 2013 telling people they should back order .22 RF from the CMP, they were still taking orders. People told me no the shortage will soon be over. I said the same thing in March of 2014 and people said don't worry the shortage will soon be over. I got the case (5,000 rounds) ordered in June of '13 in October of 2014 and people are still telling me the shortage will soon be over.

After Obummer got a second term some reloading components got scarce, namely bullets, so I decided to add bullet making to my skill set. I want to be able to cast bullets for every caliber I shoot if needed. You can also re-manufacture your spent primers if necessary (stock some toy gun caps they work).

I am really glad the shortage will soon be over!

Yes, sir.

I remember these recent events vividly and you are absolutely right.

Unlike the many of you I never got into reloading, and I think you all did the right thing learning how to make your own bullets.

Fortunately, I believe we have made it through the worst part, and most manufactured bullets are commonly available. Only .22LR is still somewhat hard to find, even now. I believe the manufactures are still cranking them out as fast as possible (there is an excellent YouTube video discussing and showing this), but there are so many .22LR's and so many people that want them, they are still in excessive high demand.

So sir, here is my rule of thumb (not what I practice, and no, I'm not a lawyer, survivalist, doctor, president, plumber, or preacher.)

#1 Every gun you own, you should have 1000 rounds for it. (even for hunting guns, because your kids/grandkids may someday find a shortage).

#2 Have on hand at least 3,000 rounds for any sporting firearm you plan to use for competition.

Other than .22LR, and if you have the extra money; ammo prices are about as low as they will predictably be for a while, right now. My advice to friends/family... buy now.

Ammunition shortages.. the long view

The #1 community for Gun Owners of the Northeast

Member Benefits:

Ultimate Member

Ultimate Member

The Hebrew Hammer

The Hebrew Hammer

Habitual Testifier

Ultimate Member

The Hebrew Hammer

Lighten up Francis

Love those Combloc guns

Ultimate Member

Ultimate Member

Member

Active Member

Ready to go

Ultimate Member

Grumpy Old Man

Member

Users who are viewing this thread

Log in

Forum statistics